A surprise factor could push the Fed to go further than markets expect.
Transcript:
CAROLINE WOODS: A 50 basis point cut is off the table you think?
BRIAN JACOBSEN: I think so. They might discuss it. We’ll really have to see whether or not the Senate is able to confirm Stephen Myron to the board, because he might bring it up as a possibility. But when the chair goes in, he usually has three different scenarios laid out for them to discuss. I don’t think any one of them would include a 50 basis point cut. Some people, though, might agitate for it, so I would not be surprised if we see perhaps a dissent if Myron is on there saying that he favored a 50 basis points as opposed to a 25, but he’s probably not going to be able to persuade the rest of the committee to that view. But to your point, we haven’t yet seen the full impact of tariffs on inflation. CEOs have suggested the effects of gradual. Some haven’t even passed on higher costs to consumers yet.
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