There are three indicators to watch for that point to a potential economic downturn, and two of them are flashing warning signs, according to Donald Rissmiller, Founding Partner of Strategas. Rissmiller said he watches credit spreads, asset prices and inflation, and consumer confidence. Confidence could be an issue. ‘The drop in consumer confidence that we saw recently, especially in the Conference Board, survey is somewhat worrisome,’ said Rissmiller. ‘That’s a good leading indicator of a business cycle phenomena. We think we’ll get through it, but it’s worth watching.’ Rissmiller also said it terms of asset prices and inflation, he does not see any current problems there. But he is closely watching the credit market. ‘Today we have some stress in the energy sector, we’re seeing some signs of strain in the credit market, he said. ‘So far it’s early to say there’s any sort of contagion, but we have to be alert to that.’ Still, Rissmiller is confident that the economy is in ‘decent shape.’ Rissmiller spoke with TheStreet’s Rhonda Schaffler at Camp Kotok, an annual gathering of economists and money managers held each year in Maine.
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