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Why markets keep pushing higher

June 25, 2025
in Trade Tube
Reading Time: 1 min read
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History suggests geopolitical tensions don’t derail the market for long.

Transcript:

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CAROLINE WOODS: Let’s start with your outlook for the market right now, especially given the escalating conflict in the Middle East. How big of an obstacle is that for stocks, Nancy?

NANCY TENGLER: You know, Caroline, I don’t think it is in the long term. I know it frustrates people because the market is pretty agnostic when it comes to war, but I was managing money in 1990 after Iraq invaded Kuwait. The market did sell off. But then when we actually began, I think it was called Operation Desert Storm, the market took off. And so I think that in 1991, I think that is illustrative of where we are. It was short and sweet. The market viewed it as optimistic. We were coming out of a recession. We were in a recession. The war brought us out of a recession.

So I think there’s some of that going on now. And though we’re not in a recession, we do know that the economy is likely to slow. The second-quarter GDP numbers are going to be strong, but that’s a snapback from the first quarter. And so I’m optimistic because I think AI productivity driven enhancements. We’ve been talking about this for three years, our investing theme has been old-economy companies that are pivoting to the new technologies and then the suppliers of the new technologies. And we’re beginning to see that play out across sectors on recent earnings calls.

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