Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin discuss hotter-than-expected inflation data, with volatile energy prices playing a central role. Because the Fed can’t directly influence oil prices, inflation staying above target likely keeps policy on hold, with rate cuts off the table for now and even the possibility of hikes if core inflation or labor strength accelerates.
They also explore how consumers feel inflation differently than economists measure it, contributing to weak sentiment despite still-positive economic growth. Real incomes are slipping, but spending remains supported, helped in part by strong AI-driven business investment.
Then, Liz Ann and Collin cover the growing dominance of AI: it’s propping up GDP, earnings expectations, and capital spending, but also introducing concentration risks and shifting corporate financing toward debt. In the bond market, strong demand has kept credit spreads tight, though potential risks include oversupply and uncertain long-term returns on AI investments.
Collin Martin also highlights rising Treasury yields, especially the 10-year, and the role of the “term premium” in a more uncertain, higher-inflation world. This shift is contributing to a negative correlation between stocks and bonds, which is a dynamic more reminiscent of earlier, more volatile inflation regimes.
Finally, Collin and Liz Ann look ahead to next week’s upcoming macroeconomic indicators and key data releases.
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Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.
Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.
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Negative correlation refers to investments that tend to move in opposite directions: when one rises, the other falls.
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