The White House warned staffers not to use insider information to place bets on prediction markets as critics grow suspicious of lucrative trading activity around the Iran war.
A White House official confirmed to The Post that the warning was sent to all staffers in an email from the White House Management Office on March 24.
A day earlier, anonymous accounts made a blitz of trades just 15 minutes before President Trump announced a pause on strikes on Iran for five days, according to the Wall Street Journal. In less than two minutes, more than $760 million worth of oil futures contracts had changed hands, Dow Jones Market Data showed.
Then, three accounts on Polymarket raked in more than $600,000 this week by correctly betting on the timing of the ceasefire. The identity of the traders remains unknown.
Polymarket did not immediately respond to The Post’s request for comment.
Prediction markets like it and Kalshi allow traders to wage bets on everything from politics, sports and pop culture to the likelihood of the president saying “Sleepy Joe” or “Trump Derangement Syndrome” on a certain day.
Critics have been quick to blast the perfectly-timed wartime trades as instances of insider trading, and members of Congress have recently introduced several bills seeking to restrict public officials’ use of futures markets.
Ethics rules already ban government workers from using insider scoops for personal gain and from gambling while on federal property, but critics have argued that’s not enough.
“President Trump has been crystal clear: while he seeks a strong and profitable stock market for everyone, members of Congress and other government officials should be prohibited from using nonpublic information for financial benefit,” White House spokesman Davis Ingle told The Post.
“The only special interest that will ever guide President Trump is the best interest of the American people,” Ingle said.
He added that any implication that Trump administration officials have engaged in insider information is “baseless and irresponsible reporting.”
In January, an unknown trader won more than $400,000 from bets that Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro would soon be out as leader – less than five hours before his capture by US forces.
Bettors reaped $54 million from wagers on former Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s ouster that were placed before he was killed in US-Israeli air strikes.
Kalshi is currently being sued for refusing to pay out those winnings, arguing that the bets do not count because the platform does not allow wagers related to death.
Meanwhile, Israel has arrested several people – including military reservists – for allegedly using classified information to place bets on Polymarket about military strikes.
US states have argued that the increasingly popular markets are the same as online gambling platforms, which require approval for state licenses and bans on users under 21.
Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois are currently fighting for the ability to restrict prediction markets.
New Jersey’s efforts to do the same recently suffered a major setback when a federal appeals court ruled Kalshi is under the exclusive jurisdiction of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Last month, Kalshi and Polymarket added new anti-insider trading rules to their platforms as members of Congress introduced a flurry of legislative proposals aimed at the new markets.
Sens. John Curtis (R-Utah) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) have pushed legislation to hand over control of prediction markets to state regulators, while lefty California Gov. Gavin Newsom banned state-appointed officials with insider information from using the markets.
Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) also announced a ban on prediction markets among his office staffers, and last week blasted a Polymarket contract linked to the rescue mission of a US service member whose plane was shot down over Iran.
“They could be your neighbor, a friend, a family member. And people are betting on whether or not they’ll be saved,” Moulton wrote in a post on X. “This is DISGUSTING.”
In a response to Moulton’s criticism, Polymarket wrote: “We took this market down immediately as it does not meet our integrity standards. It should not have been posted, and we are investigating how this slipped through our internal safeguards.”
Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Andy Kim (D-NJ) also introduced legislation that would ban prediction markets related to war or military action.
Dems have also taken aim at the Trump family’s ties to prediction markets, since Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to both Kalshi and Polymarket.
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