NASHVILLE, Tenn. — How do the Padres follow a blockbuster like the one they completed Wednesday night in Nashville?
In some ways, their grade for the Juan Soto trade remains incomplete until they make their next moves.
“Hopefully,” said Padres general manager A.J. Preller, “it’s a deal that works both ways, and we’re seeing him in the postseason next year.”
Ambitious. But the Padres are insistent that trading Soto doesn’t preclude them from contending in 2024. Here’s a look at the ripple effects of that Soto trade, and how it affects the rest of San Diego’s offseason:
1. Yes, the Padres still need pitching
The depth in the rotation and bullpen is significantly better than it was 48 hours ago. But the Padres still haven’t replaced all of what they lost from their 2023 staff. Not by a longshot, with Blake Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez departing via free agency.
“We’re going to keep looking at starting pitching,” Preller said. “We’re starting to get some depth and numbers. … Again, you need a lot of starting pitching to get through a season.”
Relief pitching, too, by the way. The Padres lost Josh Hader to free agency. Martinez, Luis Garcia and Scott Barlow also filled leverage roles last season and have since departed.
For all the Padres accomplished Wednesday in filling out their pitching staff, there’s still plenty of work to do.
2. Trade for a frontline starter?
Wednesday’s deal further bolstered a Padres farm system that has seen a renaissance in the past 18 months. That farm now features six of MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospects, tied for the most in baseball.
The Padres have made it clear they’re not looking to deplete that farm — particularly at the top — like they have in the past.
But in the wake of the Soto deal, the Padres have the capital to make a move reminiscent of their 2020-21 offseason. That winter, they acquired Snell, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. All three trades were similar, in that San Diego gave up prospect capital to take on salary and land a frontline starter.
That money’s been freed up. These Padres aren’t making three of those trades. But they might make one — especially with Musgrove and Darvish, the foundation of the current rotation, coming off injury. A reinforcement like, say, Corbin Burnes or Shane Bieber at the top would go a long way.
3. A glaring outfield need
This would’ve been true if the Padres had sent only Soto to the Yankees. Instead, they sent Soto and two-time Gold Glove Award winner Trent Grisham to New York, without receiving an outfielder in return.
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand has already linked the Padres to Jung Hoo Lee, and Feinsand noted that with the team having cleared Soto’s projected salary from its payroll, it could clear a path for a multiyear deal with the Korean outfielder.
The Soto trade also clears a path for one of the team’s more intriguing prospects. Jakob Marsee was MVP of the Arizona Fall League and will get a look in center during Spring Training. He ranks as San Diego’s No. 13 prospect after finishing the 2023 season at Double-A San Antonio.
Still, the Padres would be well served to add externally this winter. Their current Opening Day outfield projects as Marsee-José Azocar-Fernando Tatis Jr.
4. Where does Tatis play?
This is obviously contingent on the remainder of the Padres’ offseason. But for now, they seem content to let Tatis cook in right field. He was the NL’s best defender last season, taking home the Platinum Glove Award, and Petco Park’s spacious right field presents its own challenges — challenges Tatis has already mastered.
“We’ve talked to him in the offseason, and he looks at right field as kind of finding a home there,” Preller said. “Right field at Petco is a big field that’s kind of a second center field, and you have the advantages of his arm.”
Still, at Mike Shildt’s Winter Meetings media session, the new Padres skipper said he had no doubt Tatis could make the transition to center field. He followed by noting that there wasn’t a need, with a two-time Gold Glover already there.
Now? Grisham is gone. And for a third straight offseason, questions about Tatis’ position persist.
The Padres won’t make another Soto-caliber blockbuster this winter. But there’s still a chance they deal another multi-time All-Star.
Jake Cronenworth signed a seven-year, $80 million contract at the start of the 2023 season. He’s coming off a down season, but he’s a two-time All-Star with an excellent glove and a useful bat. He’s also losing value at first base, considering how impactful his glove can be at second.
Thing is, the Padres already have a packed infield, with Ha-Seong Kim at second, Xander Bogaerts at short, Manny Machado at third and No. 2 prospect Jackson Merrill on the way. A Cronenworth trade shouldn’t be viewed as a salary dump. Rather a re-allocation. The Padres can find a bat-first first baseman for less than they’re paying Cronenworth, then put some of those funds toward pitching.
There are worse things than having too many good infielders. Machado is coming off elbow surgery, after all. Kim is a likely free agent after the season. Having Cronenworth on board might prove useful.
But for now, the Padres have holes on their roster, and an excess in the infield. Cronenworth is the likeliest trade candidate.
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