President Donald Trump‘s trade war is triggering alarm among global paper suppliers — one that could lead to a dreaded shortage in US supermarkets of a household staple: toilet paper.
Suzano SA, the world’s largest exporter of pulp, said US levies are disrupting shipments of the key raw material used in making toilet paper and other hygiene products.
The Brazilian company, which produces bleached hardwood pulp used by many American manufacturers, reported a 20% drop in US-bound exports in April compared to the same time last year.
“In response to the tariffs, we’ve had to pass increased costs on to US buyers,” João Alberto de Abreu, Suzano’s chief executive, told Bloomberg News.
The São Paulo-based company warned that continued trade barriers could worsen supply chain tensions and push prices higher.
Brazil, like other US trading partners with the exception of China, currently faces a 10% universal tariff on exports.
The warning comes as memories of the 2020 toilet paper shortages, sparked by panic buying and pandemic-related logistics snarls, remain fresh for many consumers.
While current store shelves remain stocked, industry analysts say it wouldn’t take much to trigger renewed instability in the paper supply chain — especially if US buyers begin stockpiling in anticipation of further trade disruptions.
The pulp industry is already feeling the effects. Shares of Suzano tumbled as much as 4.3% during trading Friday in São Paulo, hitting their lowest intraday level since June, as investors reacted to signs of mounting tariff pressures.
Executives at Suzano say the tariff uncertainty is throwing off contract negotiations and pricing. Leonardo Grimaldi, an executive vice president at the company, said during an earnings call that the entire industry is entering a phase of instability.
“Since customers are still struggling to forecast how tariffs can affect their production plans, either directly or indirectly, all pulp buyers and sellers are in price-discovery mode,” Grimaldi said.
Suzano is not alone in raising concerns. Several other global suppliers have flagged the potential for new bottlenecks in essential goods if the tariff fight escalates.
The company’s warnings also highlight a broader trend: the risk that trade disputes, once focused on high-tech or luxury goods, are now ensnaring basic commodities critical to everyday life.
Brazil, one of the world’s largest producers of pulp, has become a flashpoint in the latest trade skirmish.
With the US hiking tariffs across a range of imports as part of Trump’s aggressive trade policy, Brazilian exporters are scrambling to protect market share while navigating higher costs.
Suzano, which was a key supplier during the pandemic-era toilet paper crunch, says it is working to adapt. But the company cautions that sustained pressure from tariffs could create ripple effects that hit American consumers where it counts: the bathroom.
“Pulp isn’t just another commodity,” Abreu said. “It’s at the heart of some of the most essential products we use every day.”
Last month, Apollo Global Management warned that US store shelves could be empty within weeks due to Trump’s steep tariffs on Chinese goods, potentially triggering a recession by summer.
Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok outlined a timeline showing how supply chain disruptions will lead to product shortages, retail slowdowns, and layoffs in both the trucking and retail sectors.
The timeline predicts that Trump’s tariffs will halt Chinese shipments by mid-May, trigger empty store shelves and falling sales by late May, lead to layoffs in trucking and retail, and push the US into a recession by summer 2025.
While some analysts caution that existing inventory may delay visible impacts, Slok predicts “COVID-like shortages” as goods from China stop arriving and the economy grinds to a halt.
The Post reached out to the White House for comment.
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