This is a special feature from the Choiceology archives. Right now, prediction markets, pollsters, and data analysts are working overtime. But predicting the future—especially in high-stakes environments—is notoriously hard. Most of us ignore critical data and place too much confidence in the accuracy of our guesses. We’re revisiting this timeless conversation with former CIA Director Leon Panetta, national security analyst Peter Bergen, and Wharton Professor Barbara Mellers on how to master the art of forecasting under uncertainty.
There are moments in life where it seems as though everything is riding on one important decision. If only we had a crystal ball to see the future, we could make those decisions with greater confidence. Fortune-telling aside, there are actually methods to improve our predictions—and our decisions.
In this episode of Choiceology with Katy Milkman ( , we look at what makes some people “superforecasters.”
In 2010, the United States government had been looking for Al Qaeda leader and perpetrator of the 9/11 attacks, Osama bin Laden, for nearly a decade. Years of intelligence gathering all over the world had come up short. It seemed every new tip was a dead end. But one small group of CIA analysts uncovered a tantalizing clue that led them to a compound in Pakistan. Soon, the president of the United States would be faced with a difficult choice: to approve the top-secret mission or not.
We will hear this story from two perspectives.
Peter Bergen ( is a national security commentator and author of the book The Rise and Fall of Osama bin Laden ( . He interviewed Osama bin Laden in 1997.
Former CIA director Leon Panetta ( led the United States government’s hunt for bin Laden and describes the night his mission came to a dramatic conclusion.
Next, Katy speaks with Barbara Mellers ( about research that shows how so-called superforecasters make more accurate predictions despite facing uncertainty and conflicting information.
You can read more in the paper titled “Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions ( .”
Barabara Mellers is the I. George Heyman University Professor of both marketing at the Wharton School ( and of psychology at the School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania ( .
Choiceology ( is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/choiceology ( .
If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts ( .
Important Disclosures
This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice.
The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.
Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.
All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.
The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investing involves risk including loss of principal.
The books How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, Manhunt: The Ten-Year Search for Bin Laden From 9/11 to Abbottabad, The Rise and Fall of Osama bin Laden, and Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction are not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the books and makes no representations about their content.
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