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The stock market may be due for reality check

August 1, 2025
in Trade Tube
Reading Time: 2 mins read
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The market may be overestimating the resilience of the economy.

Catch the full interview with Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi here:

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Transcript:
CAROLINE WOODS: Stocks are back really near all time highs. Would you say the market is overestimating the resilience of the consumer and the economy then?

MARK ZANDI: Yeah I think so. I mean part of that is just the artificial – AI. Right and driving a lot of activity among a very small group of companies that have done very, very well. And that’s running on its own dynamic. It has nothing to do with the business cycle that is, you know, just completely independent. And that helps to lift the entire market. I think if you exclude that group, then the rest of the market is more representative of the thinking around what’s going on with earnings and companies and interest rates and that kind of thing. There’s more. The increases in stock prices are more pedestrian. But even that, I suspect markets are now investors are now at a place where they, you know, they’re listening to people like me and they say, OK, I hear you. But, you know, I got to see it. Show me. And so they’re waiting to see it in the data before, they respond. But I think they’ll see it in the data. I’m confident that they will. And so it wouldn’t be surprising to me if we saw some sell off in parts of the market. But again, that the folks, the companies that are in the world of artificial intelligence and everything that drives that and benefits from that, that’s running independently of everything else.

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