Elon Musk’s Tesla handed over fewer vehicles than analysts expected in the third quarter as stiff competition in China and Europe hit demand for its aging models, putting the electric-vehicle maker at risk of its first-ever decline in annual deliveries.
Shares of the world’s most valuable automaker fell 5% in morning trading on Wednesday and were on track to erase nearly all their gains for the year.
Growing consumer interest in hybrids over EVs, a lack of European subsidies and strong competition in China were a drag on Tesla’s deliveries, as Chinese automakers such as BYD and Xpeng aggressively expand their presence in the world’s largest automotive market, with help from local government subsidies.
Tesla said deliveries rose 6.4% in the July-September period to 462,890 vehicles, marking its first quarter of growth this year.
But the figure fell short of estimates of 469,828, according to 12 analysts polled by LSEG
“Falling short of expectations could indicate difficulty in meeting overall delivery targets for 2024 and prospects for sustainable growth beyond the current lineup,” said Gadjo Sevilla, senior tech analyst at eMarketer.
Tesla now needs a record-breaking 516,344 vehicle deliveries in the fourth quarter to maintain its 2023 delivery levels of 1.81 million vehicles.
A shortfall could result in Tesla recording its first annual drop in deliveries.
The report comes ahead of a closely watched event on Oct. 10 in Los Angeles where Tesla is expected to unveil its robotaxi product in a bid to shift its strategy to AI-powered autonomous technologies.
Tesla delivered 439,975 Model 3 and Model Y, and 22,915 units of other models, which include the Model S sedan, Cybertruck and Model X premium SUV.
It produced 469,796 vehicles during the July-September period.
In July, BMW led the European battery electric vehicle market for the first time, beating Tesla, which has been losing market share to domestic firms, according to a report by JATO Dynamics.
Still, some analysts said that a return to growth marked a positive sign for Tesla and showed that some of the incentives it had rolled out to boost demand were working.
“Taking a step back, deliveries returning to growth were the most important thing to come from today’s numbers, especially given the major push on promotions and financing terms to stimulate demand in a tricky auto market,” said Hargreaves Lansdown senior equity analyst Matt Britzman, who holds Tesla shares.
This spring, Tesla introduced a string of new incentives, including offers on insurance and zero-interest financing, especially in China, which accounts for a third of its sales.
Tesla’s deliveries were also higher than those of rival BYD, which handed over 443,426 battery electric vehicles in the third quarter.
That was partly due to the Chinese EV giant’s focus on plug-in hybrid vehicles, whose deliveries jumped more than 75% in the latest quarter.
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