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Strong Jobs Report — But Recession Risk Is Still 40%

May 8, 2026
in Trade Tube
Reading Time: 1 min read
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Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, breaks down the latest jobs report, why he still sees a 40-percent chance of a recession, and what investors should watch next.

00:00:00 Introduction
00:00:12 Does the Jobs Report Change the Outlook?
00:01:17 Cooling vs Cracking Labor Market
00:02:03 Fragility Beneath the Surface
00:03:38 Signs of Consumer Weakness
00:05:21 Why Stocks Ignore Economic Weakness
00:07:29 Can Stocks Still Work Here?
00:08:37 Most Likely Economic Path Forward
00:09:51 Recession Risk at 40%
00:10:36 Labor Market vs Energy Prices
00:11:33 What This Means for the Fed
00:13:41 What Investors Should Do Now
00:15:00 Rapid Fire: This or That

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