During election years, the market typically starts choppy and then sees an upward price tilt during the second half. This is exactly what stocks are doing in 2016, said Bill Greiner, chief investment strategist at Mariner Wealth Advisors. “Uncertainty tends to lessen as we get closer to the election so the market starts to rally as an apparent victor becomes clear,” said Greiner. “Wall Street expects a Clinton win and Republicans to hold the House. But right now the Senate is a toss up.” But what about the year after either Donald or Hillary takes office? According to Greiner, the president’s first and second years in office often see periods of stock market weakness due to uncertainty from the new policy initiatives. There is a 50% probability of being in a recession the year following a presidential election. Nevertheless, Greiner does not see a recession hitting in 2017 because the economic indicators are simply not showing contraction. He is advising investors to stick with their U.S. stock positions even in the face of the heightened recession odds. “We are between the sixth and eighth innings of the economic expansion,” said Greiner. “There is still room to run.” While data doesn’t show a clear-cut advantage for the stock market if a particular party is in office, the largest increases in the Dow have happened with a Democratic president and Republican Congress. Republican presidents have historically been better for bond investors as they tend to tame inflation. Outside the U.S., Greiner is bullish on European equities due to the continued stimulative polices of the European Central Bank, as well as low valuations. He also expects emerging market equities to continue to fare well. “A Fed rate hike will not derail their recovery since rates will remain low for the next two years and commodity markets are behaving which is great for developing economies,” said Greiner.
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