Radical Transparency: The Performance Of My 189 Write Ups

The world we live in is full of noise. The media, financial media included, is no exception. People are constantly bombarded with way too much information, hundreds of articles per day, hundreds of emails (work and personal), way too many tweets, and we haven’t even thrown in the talking heads, on the major financial networks, into the conversation yet. There are so many analysts, so many strong opinions, often divergent (the market is going to soar or the market is going to crash, and yet, these people are all looking at the same data and synthesizing it very quite differently).

Therefore, to work out the signal from the noise, as I understand that for most readers, your time is precious and your bandwidth is limited, I decided to roll-up my sleeve and embarked on the mind numbing task of chronicling all of my write ups, here on Seeking Alpha (both free site and within my Investing Groups service, Second Wind Capital). This dates back to early April 2020, when I returned to SA, after a long sabbatical due to an exclusive consulting arrangement that barred me writing on SA.

Candidly, this took me upwards of twelve years to compile, as going back and looking at the dates (at the time of original publication), then inputing the stock price information, along with current stock prices, dividends, and peak prices, into excel, was a big chore. However, I would argue this was a very worthwhile exercise and it provides great insights and illuminates ample room for improvement, as an analyst and more so as portfolio manager (of my managed accounts). If you don’t go back and look, holistically, on the body of the work you’ve created, your art portfolio, so to speak, then it can be hard to see the forest for the trees. Frankly, it is so easy to get swept up in the day to day, and miss the valuable insights and learnings (often from mistakes).

To that end, enclosed below is the performance of every single write up I’ve done on Seeking Alpha, from April 1, 2020 – December 31, 2023. This the entire series and full collection, no holds barred. This includes the great, the good, and bad, and the ugly!, as they are all captured below. I’m not cherry picking or holding anything back, it is all there, out in the open and available for close inspection and scrutiny.

And just to be clear, the way I did this was chronicling every time I wrote on a new ticker (from April 1, 2020 – December 31, 2023). So the price captured is at the time of original publication. I then track and compare the original publication price (purchase price) to January 3, 2024 closing prices (that is when I started this project) as well as included the peak prices. Moreover, as I’ve written on some of my highest conviction and largest sized bet, half a dozen (or sometimes more) occasions, I’m only including the original publication date. There shouldn’t be any duplication of tickers. In addition, I would argue that this is the fairest, most straight forward, and most logical methodology.

The Great (+200% to +8633%)

Out of 189 unique companies and tickers, there are twenty stock that have stood the test of time. They have returned at least 200%, from time of original publication through January 3, 2024.

Leading the way are Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) returning 86 times your money, Antero Resources Corporation (AR) at 22 times, GameStop Corp. (GME) at 14.75 times, Range Resources Corp. (RRC) at over 10X, Signet Jewelers (SIG) at 10 times your money, Buid-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. (BBW), Limbach Holdings, Inc. (LMB), Chico’s FAS (CHS) Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR), Summer Infant (buyout), Potbelly Corporation (PBPB), Bel Fuse Inc. (BELFB), Macy’s Inc. (M), JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (JAKK), Daktronics, Inc. (DAKT), Weatherford International plc (WFRD), Bassett Furniture Industries, Inc. (BSET), The Gap, Inc. (GPS), RCM Technologies (RCMT).

The great probably beat the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq (QQQ) by a whisker.

The Good (+104% to 199%)

The good are as follows: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (HMHC), Hibbett, Inc. (HIBB), The St. Joe Company (JOE), CVR Partners, LP (UAN), Liquidity Services, Inc. (LQDT), Kirklands, Inc. (KIRK), G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. (GIII), Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY), Orion Group Holdings Inc. (ORN), Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), Spourts Farmer Market Inc. (SFM), MoneyGram International (MGI), BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJS), EPR Properties (EPR), Tivity Health (TYTY), Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc. (CPS), and Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO).

The Ok (+50% to 94%)

Next, up are the ‘ok’ that returned 50% to 94%. These include Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST), GrowGeneration (GROW), Tupperware Brands Corp. (TUP), UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI), Express, Inc. (EXPR), Carvana Co. (CVNA), Fastly, Inc. (FSLY), Iteris,Inc. (ITI), The Honest Company (HNST), The Andersons, Inc. (ANDE), Ollie’s Bargain Outlet (OLLI), Carparts.com (PRTS), United Natural Foods (UNFI), Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO), TravelCenters of America (TA), The Beauty Health Company (SKIN), Yelp Inc. (YELP), a.ka. Brands Holdings (AKA), Unisys Corporation (UIS), B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS), Mueller Water Products (MWA). Ramaco Resources Inc. (METC), Willams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM), Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH), Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. (SNCR), and Motor Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA).

9 Short/ Sell/ Avoid Ideas

Out of 189 unique ideas, I’ve written nine ‘sell’ / ‘avoid’ ideas. Seven out of nine ideas have worked out well. I was wrong on Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG) and abrdn Healthcare Investors (HQH) hasn’t really done too much.

The Ugly (-80% to -100%)

The ugly, was is downright ‘fugly’! I incorrectly said to sell Simon Property Group, Inc. (SPG). The next eight names all filed bankruptcy. Tingo Group, Inc. (TIO), although moving from $1.06 to over $5, has been accused of fraud, by the SEC, so it is looking like a zero. On the list is Wisa Technologies (WISA), Nikola Corporation (NKLA), Chicken Soup for the Soul (CSSE), Reed’s, Inc. (OTCQX:REED), BowFlex Inc. (BFX), Yield10 Bioscience (YTEN), JOANN Inc. (JOAN), Largo Inc. (LGO), Lottery.com (LTRY), the Container Store Group, Inc. (TCS), among others.

The Really Bad (-47% to -75%)

Next up are the really bad. This includes Regis Corporation (RGS), Big 5 Sporting Goods (BGFV), 1-800 Flowers (FLWS), Advanced Auto Parts (AAP), Compass Minerals (CMP), NETGEAR, Inc. (NTGR), Vroom, Inc. (VRM) Advanced Emissions Solutions (ADES), VOXX International Corp. (VOXX), Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd (NAK), Summit Midstream Partners, LP (SMLP), Rocky Brands (RCKY), Newell Brands (NWL), and Kohl’s Corp. (KSS).

The Entire List (Long Recommendations), All 181 Tickers, In Chronological Order

1 – 21

22 – 42

43 – 65

66 – 86

67 – 92

93 – 114

115 – 137

138 – 160

161 – 182

The Five Key Takeaways

1. Let your winners run!! The serious money is made long only and investing. Let a good idea play out, usually over multiple quarters (or years).
2. Spend a lot less time trading and trying to run between raindrops. In most cases, this is a big waste of bandwidth.
3. Bad management teams destroy value and good management teams create value (I think some guy, who’s kind of famous, who live’s in Omaha said something similar).
4. Think more far sightedly and be more patient.
5. Consider more 5% to 7% sized bets and give them a longer leash and lots of time to mature vs. running a portfolio of 10% to 12% sized bets.

Putting It All Together

Despite the heavy lift and twelve plus hours required to assemble it, I would argue this is a very worthwhile activity. Enclosed above are my initial findings and five key takeaways. However, I haven’t had enough time/ made the time to really sit down and fully synthesize what I can learn from this. That said, the top five key takeaways are a good starting point.

Also, I really hope this activity inspires many other SA authors to take the plunge and conduct a similar exercise. Authors really owe it to themselves. I would argue this exercise will benefit them as it is a good activity for self improvement, greater self awareness, and reflection. And lastly, arguably, other authors really owe it to their readers and the SA audience to update them on how well their ideas have performed.

Cheers,

CCI