While betting markets are becoming a key data point for candidates and media outlets seeking real time data, there are questions about where all that money is coming from — and whether it could be an attempt to influence public perception.
On Polymarket, which is not open to US residents (although a VPN can help get around that limitation), an overwhelming majority of bets in favor of a Zohran Mamdani mayoral victory are coming from China and the Middle East, according to an investigation viewed by The Post. The research was conducted by WAS Intel, a private group of forensic blockchain experts that specializes in finding manipulation in global markets.
As of Monday, the 10 wallets betting the most money on a Mamdani win controlled roughly 40% of the market, according to WAS Intel’s research. With those accounts, 87% of the cash was financed through exchanges including Binance, Bybit and OKX, with overwhelming trade volume in the Middle East and China.
The top account — dubdubdub2, which has spent $1.2 million betting on Mamdani’s odds since joining Polymarket in September — is financed on Binance, an exchange that is not legally allowed to serve customers in the US. (The company does have an American arm, Binance US.)
The median bet on Polymarket ranges between $10 and $50.
At times, WAS Intel data shows, the account has placed multiple bets on Mamdani in a single minute, suggesting the account uses a bot.
Notably, these accounts continue to place bets on a Mamdani win even though there is almost no financial upside: The odds on Tuesday afternoon placed Mamdani at 91% and Andrew Cuomo at 9%.
And the same funding sources appear repeatedly across roughly half the top 100 wallets — which, blockchain experts told The Post, could suggest a network of interlinked accounts designed to inflate and promote public perception of a Mamdani victory.
Polymarket declined to comment.
“We’re seeing single wallets distribute funds to multiple other wallets that then hold large positions — evidence that the same person is spreading funds across different accounts. One wallet alone connects 5 of the top 20 holders,” a WAS Intel spokesperson said.
Since Polymarket operates on a public blockchain, every transaction is traceable because it is permanently recorded on a transparent digital ledger that shows connections, funding sources and trading activity.
Some have expressed concern that the ubiquity of betting markets’ odds being advertised in high-traffic areas across the city — like Times Square and Penn Station, as well as bus stops.
“I keep heard [sic] from some that they have given up hope on the NYC mayoral election based on the probability of @ZohranKMamdani reflected by Polymarket,” prominent investor Bill Ackman tweeted Tuesday. “The problem is that it takes only a small amount of capital to influence Polymarket trading levels.”
Don Moore, who specializes in decision making and politics at Berkeley, told The Post: “Betting markets present an opportunity to manipulate perception,” in part because they can stifle voter turnout if a candidate is perceived to be a shoo-in.
At a Queens rally on Sunday, Mamdani referenced another betting market, Kalshi, that “have our chances of victory in the 90s.”
Bets on Polymarket have a direct impact on Kalshi’s odds. When prices differ between the two markets for the same event, arbitrage traders tend to buy the cheaper option on one exchange and sell the expensive option on the other to lock in risk-free profit.
This activity pushes both platforms’ prices toward alignment — so heavy betting on Polymarket inevitably pulls Kalshi’s odds in the same direction.
Kalshi is based in the US and regulated by the CFTC.
This all comes as a report has claimed that TikTok’s algorithm is “distorting the playing field in New York City’s mayoral race” by “amplifying” Mamdani’s content while “suppressing” opponent Andrew Cuomo’s videos.
“Early evidence points to algorithmic influence that may be shaping voter perception in the New York elections,” wrote Tel Aviv-based tech insider Yehonatan Dodeles on Medium, citing a key leaked document from the social media company.
Mark Moran, a former investment banker now running for Congress in Virginia, first raised alarm bells about “a suspicious Polymarket pattern” last week.
“Election integrity comes first,” Moran told The Post.
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