If you thought this week’s drop in stocks was bad, a bear market, or a 20% decline in stocks, is on the horizon, according to Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital.
Schiff said the “Yellen put” in the markets could expire under President Trump. “I don’t know if the Fed has much love for Trump,” he said, adding that the Fed had the markets’ back during the Obama Administration.
One black swan event Schiff sees as a possibility is the notion of investors abandoning the euphoria over Trump’s presidency, which helped fuel the stock market rally this year.
“We’ve had a huge move up since the election of Trump even though prior to the election the expectation was if Trump won it [would be a disaster for markets],” he said.
When asked if the two straight quarters of double-digit earnings growth has sparked the rally in stocks this year, as opposed to solely Trump, Schiff pointed to earnings headwinds in the retail sector.
“Look at these retailers one after another coming out with awful earnings,” he said. “Look at Foot Locker down 25%.”
Schiff didn’t buy the notion that Amazon is the reason for the retail sector’s woes.
“Amazon has been here for a long time – this is the worst year for retail – it’s worse than 2008 and 2009,” he said. “This is because consumers are broke – they have lousy jobs, they’re loaded up with debt and they can’t afford to buy stuff.”
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