If the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has run its course and the economy fails to pick up steam then the big question is what Chairwoman Yellen and company will do next, said John Culbertson, CIO of Context Asset Management. ‘The Bank of Japan is a good indication of what could happen next, which is potentially buying risk assets, it’s hard to imagine the Fed doing that,’ said Culbertson. ‘But could there be a QE four or QE five? Who knows?’ Culbertson said the global economy is clearly slowing down and just about every major central bank has significant monetary stimulus in place. He said disinflation or even deflation is apparent in almost all major economies even after massive QE programs in the U.S., Europe and Japan. The Fed is at least considering raising interest rates in 2015. Meanwhile, he said U.S. balance sheets are servicing the most debt in years just as profits appear to be peaking. In his view traditional 60/40 portfolios are particularly exposed given full valuation of equities and no coupon cushion of bonds. He added that the increased spreads in high yield bonds may be showing some cracks in the market and telegraphing a rise in the default rate in the coming year.
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