JPMorgan expects gold prices to hit $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026 – despite bullion suffering its sharpest one-day drop since 1983 on Friday.
Gold futures fell 0.9% Monday, continuing its descent following news that President Trump plans to nominate former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve – an expected pick that calmed investor nerves.
But JPMorgan expects gold prices to hit $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026 as investors and central banks continue to buy up the safe-haven asset.
The brokerage said it forecasts central bank gold purchases at 800 tons this year.
“Even with the recent near-term volatility, we remain firmly bullishly convicted in gold over the medium-term on the back of a clean, structural, continued diversification trend that has further to run amid a still well-entrenched regime of real asset outperformance vs paper assets,” the bank said in a note Monday.
Gold is coming off a record-breaking run in 2025, setting 53 new all-time highs and surpassing 5,000 tonnes for the first time on record, according to the World Gold Council.
The annual average price jumped to $3,431 an ounce in 2025 – up 44% over the year.
Deutsche Bank also reiterated its forecast for gold to reach $6,000 by the end of 2026, while UBS and Société Générale see $6,200 and $6,000, respectively.
In previous forecasts, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Citi expected gold to hit $5,700, $5,400 and $5,000 this year, respectively.
Investors often buy gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty because of its ability to hold its value as other assets fall.
Anxiety around Trump’s tariffs and their potential to cause inflation, stubbornly high interest rates, a weaker US dollar, last year’s record-breaking government shutdown and a slow labor market all contributed to gold’s explosive rise in 2025.
Meanwhile, central bankers around the world bought up gold en masse despite sky-high prices – likely a cautionary move linked to the Russia-Ukraine war and the war in Gaza, since central bankers typically increase reserves during geopolitical crises.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter point three times in a row last year. Last week, the US central bank held rates steady, but it is expected to issue another cut sometime this year.
A lower interest rate typically leads to lower Treasury yields. That makes gold, which doesn’t pay interest, an even more attractive asset – making it more likely to climb this year.
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