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How the economy reacted to Donald Trump’s first term

February 18, 2025
in Trade Tube
Reading Time: 2 mins read
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The Dow hadn’t performed as well under a Republican President since Calvin Coolidge.

Transcript:

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While past performance doesn’t mean we’re going to see a repeat this second time around, it is still good to remember what happened during Trump’s first term as president. So come on – let’s take a look back.

The stock market fared well under President Trump’s first go. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 51 percent from Inauguration Day January 2018 to leaving day January 2021. That works out to an annualized gain of 11.8 percent. That’s pretty impressive for a Republican president. The last time a GOP White House had numbers anywhere as good was way back in the 1920s when Calvin Coolidge was in charge.

But how does that stack up against the Dems? President Obama walked out of the White House with a 12.1 percent annual gain for the Dow. President Clinton had the tech boom to thank for annualized gains of 15.9 percent.

Okay, back to the Trump years now. The economy lost 2.7 million jobs between 2018 and 2021. Under the Biden Administration the economy added more than 16 million jobs.

Bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. was a key focus of Trump’s first time in office. He did have some success, but it didn’t last for long. Factory jobs peaked at 12.8 million and then dropped to 12.2 million by the time he waved goodbye before boarding Marine One.

Tariffs – now that’s a word Trump loves to hear. His first round of tariffs tallied up to $380 billion. According to economists at the Cato Institute, that resulted in an average price hike of $830 per U.S. household, per year.

His numbers are better when it comes to inflation. Since the supply-chain, pandemic-induced inflation surge happened mostly after he left, Trump’s average year-over-year inflation rate comes in at just 2.4 percent. That’s hotter than Obama, who had one of the lowest of any term on record. But lower than Biden’s 5.2 percent. Whew, we’re still feeling the pain of that – just look at the price of rent and eggs!

But here’s a number that might bring you joy. 8.4 percent – that’s how big of a raise Americans got during Trump’s first term – and that’s after inflation.

Taxes, however, paint a different picture. Despite the Trump tax cuts, the average tax return went down to $2,549 by the time he left office from $2,860, the year before he got there.

Now, while all Presidents have been known to stretch the truth or twist facts – here’s one final number just for fun. By the end of his first term, Donald Trump made 30,573 false or misleading claims, according to the Washington Post. That works out to 21 lies or half-truths for every day he was in office during that first term.

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