Donald Trump may be a real estate titan, but a Trump presidency would not necessarily lift the commercial real estate market. “A Trump presidency would cause more emotional investing than quantitative and there would be a tremendous amount of volatility in the commercial real estate world, primarily from the liquidity side,” said Jay Rollins, CEO of JCR Capital. “Equity markets would also freeze up and that could cause a value decline, which would primarily affect people who have loans coming due.” Rollins added that a Trump victory could also slow down the transactional side and likely a “value decline due to less capital available.” As for a Hillary Clinton presidency, Rollins said it would mean a more progressive agenda and a lot more government spending. As a result, there will be “a lot more need for capital and money is going to accelerate the sales market because many people will want to sell their properties and buy new properties.” A Clinton coronation would also stoke fears that the 1031 exchange on real estate could become a target for taxation. “Some people who are sitting on properties will look to create liquidity and sell properties under current 1031 exchange principals,” said Rollins. “These investors will take advantage of opportunities while they exist. You’ll likely see a rush and increase of sales in the short term.” Regarding the current state of the commercial real estate, Rollins does not see a bubble despite occasional talk of one. “The term “bubble” draws up connotations of a crash, but we are not headed in that direction. Instead, we’re predicting a 3% to 10% decline in values over the next two years, which ties back to the changing capital structure in commercial real estate. Banks are withdrawing and doing less and the CMBS market is smaller.” Rollins said his main message to investors right now is to be prepared for a market dislocation, but not a major event or crisis at this point.
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