Here’s why gold might not be the safe haven you think it is.
Catch the full interview with TheStreet’s Caroline Woods and veteran commodities trader Carley Garner here:
Transcript:
CAROLINE WOODS: OK and finally, Carley, you know, you make a good point. We’ve seen gold move up along with the overall stock market along with Bitcoin. What if we see a reversal in the stock market, and the second half of the year doesn’t look as good as some of the first half did. Obviously we started kind of on a downbeat note there. Do you think that there’s potential for that money to actually then go into gold and for gold to be a safe haven in that case then or silver?
CARLEY GARNER: That that’s an amazing question. Thank you. I’m glad that you brought that up because I actually I’ve been thinking about this. I’ll point out that I’ve noticed that Bitcoin generally tops before the stock market does. Bitcoin in February, March time frame topped about a month before the stock market actually did. I think it was late March. Bitcoin actually I take it back. Maybe late February, early March Bitcoin topped and then the stock market came in early April. We’re seeing something similar. Bitcoin seems to have started to decline here in the last handful of weeks. And I think the stock market has a pretty good chance that following suit. Now these have been like just bombastic bull markets. They’re there. You know, it’s hard to pick a top, obviously, but I will say that the risk is probably to the downside in both of those assets. And if we do get some sort of market surprise or seasonal sell off, like a lot of people are looking for, I do believe it pulls gold lower. I don’t think we’re going to get people hitting the buy button on gold because as I mentioned, they’re actually trading as if they’re one asset gold. And the stock market over the last handful of months have been correlated positively about 50% of the time. That’s not an extreme positive correlation, but it’s enough to let me know that if something goes South in the stock market and/or Bitcoin, which would probably be both, they’re going to probably hit the sell button. And gold also to raise liquidity. And I think they’re all going to go up, whether they go up or down. They’re all going to probably move together. So don’t try to buy gold. If the stock market gets a little bit rocky, I think that might be a bad.
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