Wall Street is “very convinced” that former President Donald Trump is going to win the 2024 presidential election, according to a billionaire investor who formerly managed money for George Soros.
Stan Druckenmiller — who ditched his job making money for left-leaning tycoon Soros to start his own investment firm, Duquesne Capital — said the last two weeks have shown that the markets are pricing in a Trump victory.
“You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto,” Druckenmiller told Bloomberg News. “In the last 12 days, the market and the inside of the market is very convinced Trump is going to win.”
Asked whom he plans to vote for, Druckenmiller said: “I certainly would never support either one of them.”
Banks and cryptocurrency are two sectors of the economy that will profit handsomely due to Trump’s pledge to deregulate industries, according to Druckenmiller, whose net worth is valued by Bloomberg Billionaires Index at $9.98 billion.
Banks stocks including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup have spiked in recent days after announcing better-than-anticipated earnings.
“If you put a gun to my head…I would guess Trump is favored to win the election,” he said.
The prospect of a Trump victory has fueled enthusiasm for an investment strategy known as “the Trump trade” – whereby investors buy up a basket of stocks in industries that are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of a second Trump term.
Betting market sites including Polymarket and Kalshi are now predicting a Trump victory. As of Thursday morning, Polymarket had Trump’s odds of winning at 61.3% compared to 38.6% for Harris.
The site has fielded nearly $1 billion worth of wagers on the presidential election.
Kalshi gives Trump a 57% chance of winning the election compared to 43% for Harris. So far, bettors have wagered $21.8 million on the race.
Druckenmiller said that even if the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, were to win, she would not be able to enact much of her agenda given that state polls show Republicans are favored to win a majority in the US Senate.
He predicted that a “red sweep” — a Trump victory as well as a Republican majority in both houses of Congress, is “more likely.”
Druckenmiller said that Trump and Harris “are actually unified on some things, like industrial policy.”
“Both of them think apparently the government should have a major role in allocating capital, which I find frankly bizarre,” he said.
Druckenmiller said both Democrats and Republicans are “throwing free market Reagan capitalism to the side,” though he said Harris’ policies were “much worse in terms of anti-business and regulation.”
Druckenmiller called Trump a “blowhard” who lacked the “dignity” of Ronald Reagan and other presidents.
“I’ll probably write in someone when I go to the polls,” he said.
The most recent Fox News poll shows Trump ahead of Harris nationally though the vice president has a slight lead in key battleground states.
According to the Fox News survey, Trump is beating Harris 50% to 48%, but the Democrat has a six-point lead among voters from seven swing states that may determine the election.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that Harris held a marginal three-point leader over Trump.
Harris entered the race in July after Biden ended his reelection effort following a poor debate performance against Trump in June.
Trump at the time was widely seen as the front-runner, partly based on his perceived strength on the economy after several years of high inflation under the Biden administration, which has eased in recent months.
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