There’s not a single trader or sophisticated investor I have spoken to who believes Ryan Cohen, the CEO of troubled video-game retailer GameStop, is really going to buy eBay. And yet, I can’t count this guy out – and neither should you.
Yes, there are plenty of reasons to doubt. EBay is five times GameStop’s size. The meme investor cult that has followed 40-year-old Cohen doesn’t extend much beyond the fevered swamps of retail stock picking.
Cohen’s recent disclosures about his bid also haven’t helped his cause. His uneven and sometimes evasive interview on CNBC has been universally panned, including his laconic response to questions about how he plans to finance the deal.
“The full details are on our website,” Cohen assured his interlocutors, even though simple math – $9 billion in cash plus $20 billion in borrowed money – doesn’t get you to eBay’s market cap of $53 billion.
It was the joke of last week’s Milken Global Conference, the yearly confab of Wall Street power players.
Meanwhile, the typical eBay shareholder has done well over the past five years. It’s a profitable e-commerce business under current management.
So it’s no surprise that eBay gave Cohen the old Heisman this week, rejecting his offer as “neither credible nor attractive.” Most people on Wall Street – and probably the eBay board – are concluding that he will make up the financing difference by further diluting his GameStop shareholders.
What eBay investor wants shares of a barely profitable retailer that sells videos in malls people don’t go to anymore and which, by the way, has a huge position in Bitcoin?
Of course, all of this is more than fair. But here’s why I’m also skeptical of the Cohen skeptics.
GameStop is a lousy business, which Cohen readily admits, but somehow he has made it work. Cohen, the founder of the successful pet supplies site Chewy, took over GME in 2023 just after the height of the meme mania had sent its shares soaring.
They’re now well off their highs, but Cohen has done a good job operationally, shedding stores and accumulating cash by diluting shareholders. That’s exactly what he’s supposed to do. Yes, its stock is still buoyed by meme mania, but its balance sheet is strong.
Other meme stocks have imploded; GME has a $10 billion market cap.
He’s also smartly looking for an exit ramp for GME, a floundering business. It’s why he made a foray into crypto and why he’s making his move against eBay.
Bob Sloan, the founder of S3 Partners and my partner in the Risk and Return podcast, has been around Wall Street for years. He sniffs a method to the alleged madness in Cohen’s eBay bid.
“He’s in the game for something, it might not be this, but he’s in the game,” he tells me.
Cohen seems undeterred by eBay’s stiff arm and suggested he might make a hostile bid for the company on Wednesday.
Yes, it all sounds crazy – but would it be any crazier than his purchase of GameStop?
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