From mega-cap tech to international markets, here’s where smart investors are putting their money.
00:00:00 — ETF Flow Trends
00:00:23 — Defensive Bull Market?
00:01:38 — Is AI a Bubble?
00:02:11 — AI Bubble Concerns
00:02:50 — Investor Sentiment
00:03:26 — Beyond Mega-Cap Tech
00:04:39 — Demand for Tech-Excluded ETF
00:05:13 — Crypto ETF Demand
00:06:23 — Does Crypto Matter?
00:06:48 — Crypto–Equity Divergence
00:07:13 — Positioning for 2026
Transcript:
Caroline Woods
Joining me now. Mo Haghbin, Managing Director at Proshares. Mo, thanks so much for being here at the desk with me.
Mo Haghbin
Thanks for having me.
Caroline Woods
So let’s start by talking about ETF flows, because you have some unique insights. Obviously at Proshares you get a chance to see where the money’s going, where it’s coming from. What are you seeing that might be surprising. Or maybe that goes against the market narrative. Sure.
Mo Haghbin
Well, I mean, look, headline, we’re having an incredible year in terms of asset gathering. It’s going to be a record year for ETFs as a whole. But to your point, there are some trends underneath that I think are quite important. The S&P is up 16%. The Nasdaq is up over 20%. Obviously sentiment is pretty strong. But it’s a very much of a defensive bull.
Mo Haghbin
You see the market leaders are actually the mega-cap companies that have larger profitability, very, very stable balance sheets, good return on invested capital. So it’s not like the small cap mid-cap or cyclical stocks that are outperforming and seeing the flows. It’s actually the bigger mega caps and the AI themes that are really outperforming.
Caroline Woods
Is that concerning or are there any signs that maybe we could see a we have seen a bit of a broadening out of the rally if you take a look at sector performance, but are there underlying signs that that defensive bull could turn into something that incorporates more of the market?
Mo Haghbin
I mean, I think this is the question that’s on everybody’s mind. Every client I talked to is bringing this up. Are we, you know, overly concentrated. Are valuations stretched in certain segments of the market? For me, I kind of have a hard time seeing that happen in the short term. When you think about market concentration, I think it’s really important to realize that today’s mega-cap tech companies are not just one company.
Mo Haghbin
They’re a conglomerate. Underneath that, there’s several companies, and those companies underneath are not necessarily correlated. So like let’s take Apple for example. You know they have hardware. They have you know, things like wearables, they have software. These things are actually not as correlated as you think. And maybe 20 years ago those would all be independent companies. For me, I think short term that I think will probably continue and markets will rally because of it.
Caroline Woods
But the big question is is AI a bubble?
Mo Haghbin
Yeah.
Caroline Woods
Yeah. Is there anything that suggests that investors think it is or maybe that they’re not concerned enough?
Mo Haghbin
Sure. I mean, I think concentration from a practical standpoint is something we should all be paying attention to because weight is weight. So if there’s a 7% stock weight in an index and that stock has an idiosyncratic event, that you’re going to feel that the broad based indices will correct because of that. But to my earlier point, I don’t think we’re at bubble territory.
Mo Haghbin
It depends on what you compare it to. This isn’t the 90s, right? Because profitability is a much different picture now. And actually, if you wait companies based on earnings and profitability rather than their market cap, I think it would tell a different story.
Caroline Woods
So how would you characterize investor sentiment right now based on the flows data that you have?
Mo Haghbin
I think investor sentiment is pretty strong going into the new year. I think where I would have some reservations or want to think about, asset allocation decisions are repositioning around two things. One, the employment picture is softened a little bit, and I think that’s important for us to watch. That dovetails really, really nicely with the Fed’s dual mandate.
Mo Haghbin
And how is the fed going to respond. We have a rate cut in December that’s fairly certain. And I think we’ll continue to see the short end come down which is accommodative. That will support markets as long as the fed is easing. I think the equity market will continue to have strength and sentiment will continue to be strong, okay.
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