The U.S. created 142,000 jobs in September, far below the 200,000 predicted by Wall Street’s experts. While it’s a glaring miss, Philip Tetlock, co-author of Superforecasting and co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, said the investment banks need not dismiss all their economists yet. ‘The only way we can identify superforecasters is on the basis of hundreds of judgments they make over extended periods of time,’ said Tetlock. ‘That’s how you sort out the superforecasters from the not so good forecasters.’ The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is a multi-year forecasting study that Tetlock co-leads with his wife Barbara Mellers. The GJP is made up of tens of thousands or ordinary volunteers – including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer and a former ballroom dancer – who set out to forecast global events. Dubbed ‘Superforecasters’ by Tetlock, they do not rely on powerful computers or mathematical algorithms, the group continues to make better predictions than their benchmarks and intelligence analysts. ‘Superforecasters make a major effort to distinguish as many degrees of doubt as the problem permits,’ said Tetlock. ‘They realize they are playing a game of odds, it’s a long term game and you don’t conclude that someone is a superforecaster based on one hit.’ The key to becoming a better forecaster, if not a super one, according to Tetlock is the same as any other endeavor: Practice, practice, practice.
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