US stocks posted mixed results and oil prices went on a wild ride Monday as President Trump signaled a possible end to the war in Iran, even as the vital Strait of Hormuz remained closed and Tehran attacked Israel’s largest oil refinery.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up about 50 points, or 0.1% while the S&P 500 dropped 0.4% and the Nasdaq, 0.7%, as traders appeared to hang on every word coming from Trump — who’s alternated between indicating the conflict is winding down and voicing a more aggressive stance.
“The Dow average is responding in almost real time to every perceived micro-development in the potential end of the Iran war,” Kenin Spivak, CEO and chairman of SMI Group, told The Post. “By contrast, oil prices are more attuned to what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz.”
Brent crude futures rose 1.8% to $114.64 a barrel, up nearly 40% this month, after declining earlier in the session as traders remained concerned about damage to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 5.5% to $105.14
National average gasoline prices hit $3.99 on Monday – the highest level since 2022, according to AAA.
Trump said Monday that a deal to wind down the conflict – now in its fifth week after the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 – was “probably” close, helping the Dow regain some of last week’s losses that put it in correction territory.
But in the same Truth Social post, Trump warned that the US would obliterate Iran’s power plants, oil wells and key energy hub, Kharg Island, if it does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz – a vital maritime route for 20% of the world’s oil – within a week.
Meanwhile, Iran struck Israel’s largest oil refinery and its Houthi allies blasted a water and electrical plant in Kuwait – ramping up concerns that energy prices will remain elevated even if the war ends soon, since it will take time to repair damages.
Asked for his response on the strikes, Trump told The Post in an exclusive interview: “You’ll see shortly.”
Brent crude is on track for its steepest monthly gain on record as energy analysts warn that it will take time for complex energy infrastructure to be repaired.
Israel earlier this month struck Iran’s South Pars gas field, and Tehran retaliated with strikes on energy facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and ramped up attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf.
The Strait of Hormuz – a vital waterway not only for oil, but for fertilizer and metals – has remained closed, and now analysts are concerned that the Houthis could cut off access to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a chokepoint between the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa.
“Oil prices have been bouncing around recently,” Jeff Krimmel, founder of Krimmel Strategy Group, told The Post. “We’re seeing tension in how traders are responding to comments from the Trump administration compared to the on-the-ground reality in and around Iran.”
Follow The Post’s coverage of the United States’ airstrikes on Iran:
“It would likely require a meaningful increase in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, plus an acknowledgement by both American and Iranian officials that peace talks were gaining momentum, before you see oil prices move off these elevated levels,” Krimmel said.
In an interview with the Financial Times published Sunday, Trump said he would prefer to “take the oil” in Iran, similar to how the US gained control of Venezuelan oil exports after its capture of dictator Nicolás Maduro.
“To be honest with you, my favorite thing is to take the oil in Iran, but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘Why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people,” the president told the FT.
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