Apple’s smartphone shipments in 2025 are expected to top Samsung’s for the first time in over a decade and become the world’s leading seller of smartphones, according to a new report.
An analysis by Counterpoint Research found that global smartphone shipments will rise by 3.3% year over year in 2025, with much of the gain driven by Apple.
Shipments of iPhones are expected to climb 10% year over year in 2025, in part because of growing demand for the iPhone 17 series in key regions.
Counterpoint projected that Apple’s shipments will reach 19.4% in 2025, which would make Apple the world’s leading smartphone manufacturer for the first time since 2011.
Samsung’s shipments are expected to increase 4.6% year over year and reach a global share of 18.7%, slipping out of first place for the first time in over a decade.
“Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point,” said senior analyst Yang Wang.
“Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase. Furthermore, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years.”
That base of consumer demand is expected to help Apple retain its newly regained lead among smartphone manufacturers through 2029, according to the analysis.
Samsung’s strategic move to the A series is expected to reinforce momentum in emerging markets through its stronger specifications and competitive pricing, while, in mature markets, Samsung’s move to premium offerings is expected to help it defend market share, Counterpoint projected.
Chinese smartphone manufacturers are expected to rely further on overseas markets to fuel growth, while also moving into higher-priced segments with premium features to boost profitability.
Counterpoint said that diversification should allow the Chinese manufacturers to strengthen their revenue, while their rankings in terms of shipments are expected to hold steady through 2029.
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