The only thing keeping the US economy from falling off a cliff is AI spending: Without it, the nation’s growth numbers would be in the toilet, dragged down by an Iran war that’s goosing gasoline prices and sending US consumers straight to the poor house.
That, at least, is the doom-and-gloom making the rounds in the mainstream media and on some parts of Wall Street lately — with Cassandras adding for good measure that the artificial-intelligence bubble is poised to pop any day now, leaving millions out of a job amid a cataclysm of corporate bankruptcies.
Count me as skeptical.
Ditto for plenty of less voluble market watchers who are tracking numbers closely.
No — things aren’t perfect.
Average Americans are feeling the sting of higher prices at the pump and at the grocery store.
And yes — the AI build-out will end at some point, meaning the economy will have to perform on its own.
But take a little time to vet the facts and you might be given pause.
In fact, you might even see how things could get noticeably better and soon if a few things break our way.
Veteran market strategist Jason Trennert of Strategas Research Partners tells me that “If it weren’t for the war, we would be talking about a reacceleration in the economy.”
He points to President Trump’s tax cuts for business and his ban on tax increases for consumers.
The tax breaks “almost seem prophetic in anticipation of the war,” he said.
He also points to unemployment claims last week coming in below 200,000 — the “lowest since 1969 NOT adjusted for the rise in the population.”
Payrolls increased by 178,000 in March.
Corporate profits remain strong, which is why stocks keep setting records.
They’re also a forward-looking indicator of good stuff to come.
That’s not to say the glass-half-empty crowd don’t have their talking points.
Inflation just clocked in at 3.5%, and 3.2% when you take out volatile stuff like energy and food.
Joe Biden’s spending and Jerome Powell’s feckless monetary policy sparked a historic inflation surge that has moderated but has still left prices elevated.
Labor gets efficient
This column has never been a fan of how President Trump carpet-bombed the world with tariffs.
Treating Canada like China isn’t good policy, and while the White House has backed off the scale of the “Liberation Day” levies, they are still embedded in the US economy.
They serve both as a tax increase on consumers and at least initially, prove to be inflationary.
Meanwhile, Powell, the soon-to-be-gone Fed chair, says that while unemployment numbers remain low, for people looking for work it “doesn’t feel like a good labor market” as fewer new jobs are being created even with GDP growing.
That looks like a scary fact of life with the advent of AI.
OK — but here’s where the “panicans,” as our president likes to call them, start to lose me.
Take a look at the latest economic data: The 2% economic growth — even if it’s mostly AI driven — is a strong number that’s likely to get stronger because of AI.
Even when spending stops on the build-out of the technology, the benefits in terms of productivity begin once it takes hold and labor becomes more efficient.
Inventions create work
I know there is a bear case for AI — namely that it will spark a job apocalypse.
We’ve written about it extensively on these pages.
But that is true of every innovative technology. If history is any guide, other, better paying jobs are always created.
The invention of the car made buggy-whip makers miserable until they found work on the Ford assembly line.
BTW, another major reason for the AI build-out is Trump’s tax and regulatory agenda.
His “Big Beautiful Bill” is one of the best pro-growth pieces of policy in recent history with its major tax incentives for business investment.
The result: 10%-plus growth in this area, according to the last GDP report.
Yes, much of it comes from AI, but other sectors are likewise poised to seize the advantage once the business cycle turns.
While the Iran conflict is clearly an economic drag, it won’t last forever nor will higher gas prices.
Like the job creation from technology advancement, the same pattern follows when you get a peace dividend.
And the economy — here and abroad — is bound to pick up once investors realize that the world’s biggest state sponsors of terrorism, the mullahs in Iran, are completely neutered.
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