If Hillary Clinton garners more than 50% of the popular vote come November 8, she’ll be overcoming a hurdle her husband never did. Only three of the last six presidential elections saw a majority popular vote for the winning candidate. President Barack Obama managed to overcome the 50% threshold in both 2008 and 2012, and President George W. Bush did so in 2004. Bush in 2000 fell short, as did President Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. In 2016, polls don’t point to either Clinton or Donald Trump getting over half of the popular vote very easily. A RealClearPolitics average of polls in a two-way matchup has Clinton at 48.3% support and Trump 43.2%. When including third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, Clinton drops to 45.3% and Trump 39.9%. Some polls, however, indicate Clinton could reach the 50% mark. An ABC News tracking poll released over the weekend has Clinton with a 12-point lead over Trump among likely voters, 50% to 38%, in a four-way contest. While the polls appear to indicate getting half of the popular vote may be a stretch for the former secretary of state, the prediction markets are a bit more bullish on her prospects — or, perhaps, Trump’s. U.S.-based prediction market PredictIt gives it a 63% likelihood one of the presidential candidate’s popular vote will exceed 50%.
Subscribe to TheStreetTV on YouTube:
For more content from TheStreet visit:
Check out all our videos:
Follow TheStreet on Twitter:
Like TheStreet on Facebook:
Follow TheStreet on LinkedIn:
Follow TheStreet on Google+:
source
