A $5 price tag at gasoline pumps is looking like more of a possibility, according to JPMorgan analysts.
They warned Friday that the jet fuel crisis sparked by the Iran war’s historic energy supply disruption is making the prospect of gas prices hitting $5 a gallon increasingly likely.
Brent crude oil prices have averaged roughly $100 a barrel since the war in Iran broke out in late February. Meanwhile, refiners are focusing on jet fuel and deprioritizing diesel and gasoline, analysts led by Natasha Kaneva wrote in a note.
Jet fuel has been among the products hit hardest as the Strait of Hormuz blockade limits global energy trade, and damage to Middle Eastern facilities threatens to keep prices higher for longer.
Airlines have warned that added jet fuel costs could force them to hike ticket prices, while many have already started raising their checked bag fees. Over the weekend, higher jet fuel costs abruptly sent Spirit Airlines, with its weak operating margins, out of business.
Refiners are eager to ramp up their jet fuel output – but that typically means less diesel and a ripple effect that could ultimately slam gasoline, according to the JPMorgan analysts.
“This likely helps explain why US gasoline prices are at [$4.55 a gallon] and why the risk of $5 gasoline can no longer be dismissed,” the analysts wrote.
As of Friday, national average gasoline prices were at $4.55 a gallon, according to AAA. That’s a 52% premium compared to pre-war prices, or an increase of $1.57.
“The timing could hardly be worse,” the JPMorgan note said. “The US driving season unofficially begins with Memorial Day at the end of May.”
Consumer sentiment in May hit a fresh record low of 48.2 as Americans feared higher gasoline prices could slam inflation, according to a University of Michigan survey released Friday.
That was down 3.2% from last month’s dismal reading and off 7.7% from the same time last year. Economists had been looking for a reading of 49.7.
The souring outlook comes from “a surge in concerns about high prices both for personal finances as well as buying conditions for major purchases,” Joanne Hsu, director of the consumer survey, said in a statement.
“About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned gasoline prices and about 30% mentioned tariffs. Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump,” Hsu added.
“Middle East developments are unlikely to meaningfully boost sentiment until supply disruptions have been fully resolved and energy prices fall.”
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