The price of gold struck an all-time high on Monday, surging as much as 3% to trade at $2,135 per troy ounce as the US dollar fell.
Though gold futures have since dipped slightly — to roughly $2,080 in early morning trades — the price of the precious yellow metal hasn’t these levels since August 2020, when it hit its previous record-setting price, $2,072.49 per troy ounce.
Gold’s gains are part of a rally that began in November 2022 and has since worked in opposition with the US dollar, which has weakened as the world has become more volatile because of the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel.
The dollar experienced a 3.1% month-over-month dip on Monday against a basket of six other currencies, according to the Financial Times — a rate just slightly above its four-month low.
The fall, which has happened simultaneously alongside a drop in US Treasury yields, comes as investors have grown more confident that the Federal Reserve will slash interest rates soon.
It’s a similar view held by hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman, who predicted that the benchmark federal funds rate could fall from its current 22-year high — between 5.25% and 5.5% — as early as the first quarter.
He told Bloomberg last week that such a move would be necessary to avert “a real risk of a hard landing” for the US economy.
Ackman, whose made his name building up Pershing Square Capital Management’s $17 billion portfolio, insisted that he’s not convinced the US economy is headed for a “soft landing,” in which the Fed would be able to continue its tightening regime while staving off a recession.
He acted on this belief back in August, when he shorted 30-year Treasury bonds — a move that netted Ackman’s fund a profit of about $200 million.
JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon, meanwhile, has warned Wall Street to brace for a recession.
He forecasted at the New York Times DealBook Summit in New York on Wednesday that the threat of rising interest rates even as inflation slows is looming over the economy.
“A lot of things out there are dangerous and inflationary. Be prepared,” Dimon said. “Interest rates may go up and that might lead to recession.”
Dimon’s comments suggest that he doesn’t forecast a rate cut following the next two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Dec. 11 and 12.
Economists have been divided on what central bankers’ next move is — and whether it means the US economy is in for a soft or hard landing.
Those predicting that an interest rate cut is forthcoming have cited a weaker-than-expected jobs report in October, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US economy added 150,000 jobs.
The unemployment rate is now 3.9%, the agency said, above the Fed’s 3.8% year-end forecast.
Inflation has also trended weaker than central bankers’ estimates as Americans see some reprieve from the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle, which began in March 2022.
Those forecasting a recession have noted that interest rates have since increased at a pace not seen in 40 years, and the Fed hasn’t cut interest rates in over a year despite falling inflation.
US inflation slowed to 3.2% in October, the latest Consumer Price Index showed, which tracks changes in the costs of everyday goods and services.
The figure marked a deceleration from September’s 3.7% advance — and was the first time since June that inflation had slowed month-over-month — though it’s still uncomfortably above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
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