2023’s Box Office Bounce Back: Hollywood Strives To Shake Off Industry Drama

It has been a dramatic stretch in the content world. Between management shake-ups at Disney (DIS) late last year and the jump in streaming service costs throughout 2023, the film industry has undergone a roller coaster ride.

Summer blockbusters Barbie and Oppenheimer attracted families back to the theaters, and then Taylor Swift’s The Eras Tour musical resulted in flocks of fans earlier this quarter. The news has not been purely two thumbs up, however, evidenced by a recent flop by the once-dominant Marvel franchise. Toss in the Hollywood actors’ and writers’ strike, and this year’s trailer is one fraught with twists.

Silver Bells & Silver Screens

All eyes are now on what the holiday season box office brings. After all, who doesn’t enjoy heading out to catch a flick after unwrapping presents? The tone is hopeful following the successful December 15 debut of Warner Bros. Discovery’s (WBD) Wonka. That film raked in $3.5 million on its opening night.[1] Industry analysts forecast upwards of $40 million in total box office sales over its first weekend, along with robust numbers from international markets, according to CNBC’s Julia Boorstin.[2]

Creeping Closer to Sales Totals of Yesteryear

Big picture, 2023 tracks to fall well shy of 2019’s pre-pandemic box office gross sales figure of $11.4 billion.[3] Data from IMDbPro reveals that the relative shortfall will likely amount to $2 billion as the industry battles fierce competition from the ‘Netflix-and-chill’ mantra that gained steam following the onset of COVID-19 nearly four years ago.

Better Box Office Numbers In 2023, Still Lagging Pre-Pandemic Totals

Major Movies in (and not in) the Queue

Still, hopes are high that upcoming releases, Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom and The Color Purple, both produced by WBD, can help end the year with a flourish. What else is set to hit the silver screen?

Disney’s Star Wars: Rogue Squadron was supposed to be released this month, but Variety reported the ill-fated blockbuster was pulled by its producer and that it’s no longer in active development.[5] Had the one-off adventure feature been a go, 2023’s gross ticket sales would have likely topped the $9 billion mark. Amazon’s The Underdogs, slated for a January 2024 debut, was also pulled. Moviegoers can still look forward to Amazon’s The Beekeeper, expected to be released on January 12 at IMAX theaters (IMAX).

Wall Street Horizon’s data show Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, The Beekeeper, Madame Web, Dune: Part Two, Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, and Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire will all appear at IMAX locations through early Q2 2024.

Netflix Remains the Most Prolific Movie Maker Heading Into 2024

Few Slam-Dunk Films

Looking ahead to 2024, analysts remain concerned about overall theater visit trends despite what on paper looks like a decent lineup. Films such as Dune: Part Two, Deadpool 3, Transformers One, The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, and Mean Girls are all hoped to help bolster the box office rebound. But a disappointing showing from 33rd installment in the Marvel franchise, The Marvels, tells a cautionary tale regarding how well movie franchises can endure.[6]

Broad-Based Gains for Filmmaker Stocks

The Bottom Line

Hollywood aims to reel moviegoers back to the theaters this season following a dramatic year in the industry. Streaming services continue to make their presence known, but ticket sales continue to recover from 2020’s pandemic low figure. Share prices of many media names, meanwhile, have been a hit with investors. The shows must go on, and studios will carefully analyze Christmas weekend sales trends as we call it a wrap on 2023.

[1] Wonka’ Kicks Off Holiday Box Office With $3.5 Million From Thursday Previews, Wrap Pro, Jeremy Fuster, December 15, 2023

[2] Watch Friday’s full episode of Fast Money – December 15, 2023, December 15, 2023

[3] IMDbPro, December 19, 2023

[4] IMDbPro, December 19, 2023

[5] ‘Star Wars’ Shakeup: Kevin Feige and Patty Jenkins Movies Shelved, Taika Waititi Looking to Star in His Own, Variety, Adam B. Vary, March 7, 2023

[6] Marvels’ box office flop marks the end of an era for the studio’s winning formula-and the beginning of a new one for Hollywood’s workers, Fortune, Joanna Robinson, Dave Gonzales and Gavin Edwards, November 24, 2023

[7] StockCharts, December 19, 2023

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