Stocks went on a rollercoaster ride Monday — with the Dow finishing in positive territory on upbeat comments from President Trump after plunging nearly 900 points on simmering stagflation fears.
After days of mixed messages from the White House, the commander-in-chief said the conflict was “very far ahead of schedule,” sparking a late-Monday rally. The Dow closed up about 239 points, or 0.5%, while the Nasdaq and S%P 500 went up 1.4% and 0.8%, respectively.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices closed at $94.77 after soaring past $100 a barrel earlier in the day and briefly topping $120 – stoking fears that a prolonged conflict could reheat inflation and slow economic growth, the toxic mix known as stagflation.
Experts cautioned oil could spike again in the highly volatile environment.
Prices could surge past $150 a barrel and trigger a stagflation crisis at home if the war in Iran rages on for another four or five weeks, experts told The Post.
As for how far oil could rise over the next few weeks, “there’s really no upper bound,” said Jeff Krimmel, founder of Krimmel Strategy Group and an energy expert.
“I would not be surprised if it hit $150,” he said. “It’s just a combination of the duration of military combat operations and then the intensity.”
JPMorgan analyst Andrew Tyler on Monday warned that the escalating conflict in Iran could drag the S&P 500 down to about 6,270 – a 7% slide from Friday’s close.
The Trump administration has assured Americans that oil prices – and thus gasoline prices at the pump – will fall quickly, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright promising that gas prices will dip below $3 a gallon “again before too long.”
National average gasoline prices hit $3.48 on Monday, according to AAA, as a major bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted 20% of the world’s oil supply and the shipment of goods like apparel, food, fertilizer and aluminum.
For every dollar increase in oil prices, there is typically a 4-cent increase in gasoline prices – meaning a $40 jump in crude could hike prices at the pump by $1.60, according to Krimmel.
“The longer it goes on, the worse it can get,” said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation Group.
Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have all reportedly started shutting down production from their oilfields and it takes time for those systems to come back online – but if the conflict ends soon, “we would see a dramatic sell-off in prices” immediately, Russell told The Post.
There is still a fear that shocks could ripple across consumer prices and ignite a period of stagflation – as people will have to direct more dollars toward oil, spend less elsewhere and thus slow economic growth, Krimmel said.
Higher inflation would also make it harder for the Fed to slash interest rates.
The current economic climate has drawn comparisons to the 1970s, when oil embargoes fueled a US crisis characterized by stubborn inflation, low growth and high unemployment.
As in the 1970s, current oil problems are being fueled by geopolitical risks, not socioeconomic problems, said Russell.
There are also similar fears around a politicized Fed as Trump has been hounding central bankers to slash interest rates, which Russell likened to former President Richard Nixon pushing then-chairman Arthur Burns to lower rates.
“What we don’t yet have is a bad job environment,” Russell told The Post. “Overall, we don’t have anything as bad as the 70s yet.”
The US also produces much more oil today than it did in the 1970s, and global economies have somewhat diversified away from fossil fuels, Krimmel said.
“If US military operations were confined to within the order of one month, and after that month you got more into a negotiated agreement … you could see a normalization fairly quickly,” Krimmel told The Post.
“That’s less likely to happen quickly if we get into a monthslong conflict where the US is actively and enduringly pursuing a regime change in Iran.”
JPMorgan’s Tyler said he sees similar potential for a quick rebound if tensions ease soon.
A possibly significant release of oil reserves by G7 finance ministers, as reported by CNBC, also helped prices inch down late Monday afternoon, since such a decision would have an immediate downside impact on oil prices.
The relief would ultimately be short-lived, however, as there aren’t enough oil reserves in the world to make up for the complete blockade of the Middle East, according to Krimmel.
Additional reporting by James Franey
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