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China market rally may be premature

May 18, 2025
in Trade Tube
Reading Time: 2 mins read
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Ted Thatcher, President of Bright Lake Wealth Management, explains why the market bump could reverse course just as quickly.

Transcript:

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So much of the last several weeks since liberation day on April 2 has been uncertain. The market can’t figure out what to expect. And really, what we’ve been looking for is pen to paper on these trade deals. We saw the first version of that get released with the Europe trade deal. And really, of course, the market is going to want to see these things in action. But I do think the market is getting a little bit more of the clarity that it’s been looking for. And so, I mean, is it too early. Sure maybe it’s not in practice yet, but the market is excited to see that a lot of the tensions are starting to ratchet down. That’s exactly the kind of good news investors have been looking for. 
Is the rally short term. I think that it’s going to come down to if we get the actual results to come through the good headlines. Of course, we’ve seen how volatile this trade discussion can be. When the terrorists were announced, this big old toll booth got thrown into all the World Trade routes. And then 48 hours later, it was removed and we saw the market react to that. And so I would absolutely say that if for some reason tensions got ratcheted back up, yeah, we might very well be in a negative downward market again. But the administration has seemed to listen to some of the signals the market is sending, and it’s not been. I don’t think there’s been any louder signal sent than, hey, we need the talks to come to an end. Pen needs to come to paper and again, sure, maybe it’s a little too soon. But I do think it’s a very light at the end of the top of the tunnel. Optimistic circumstance. 

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