Oil prices fell about 10% this week to their lowest price since the Iran war started, after President Trump signed a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – but it could take months for gasoline prices to get back to pre-war levels.
Brent crude futures fell 0.1% to $77.18 a barrel Thursday. Earlier in the day, it traded as low as $75 — just a few dollars above the roughly $72.50 price that was the norm prior to the outbreak of hostilities.
West Texas Intermediate crude slid 0.3% Thursday to $75.78 a barrel.
The oil benchmarks soared as high as $126 a barrel during the conflict that began Feb. 28.
Drivers saw some long-awaited relief at the pump, as national average gasoline prices fell to $3.999 a gallon, according to AAA – the first time below the $4 mark in more than five months.
But analysts warned that it could take months for gasoline prices to settle into the mid-$3 range, and that the US likely won’t see gas below $3 a gallon until this winter – and that’s only if the US-Iran peace agreement holds.
“While the near-term relief in gasoline prices will be much appreciated by US consumers, we’re far from a guarantee of smooth sailing,” Jeff Krimmel, founder of Krimmel Strategy Group, told The Post.
It will likely take up to six months for tanker traffic flows to fully normalize, and repairs to damaged Middle Eastern energy facilities could take anywhere from six months to two years, according to Joe Adamski, managing director of ProcureAbility, a supply chain consultancy.
In addition to reopening the strait of Hormuz, the US-Iran memorandum of understanding that Trump signed Wednesday includes a promise for the US to ease sanctions on Iran, albeit much remains up in the air after the agreement.
By Thursday, a Reuters analysis showed that at least 12 major energy vessels, including three Saudi-flagged supertankers carrying six million barrels of crude, had sailed through the strait – but experts called that a drop in the bucket.
“There is a time lag that goes into normalizing vessel flows, even if you have the diplomatic agreement,” Krimmel said. “There are a lot of unknowns that could prevent a smooth, quick approach to normalization.”
Several oil vessels have been trapped in the Persian Gulf for months now – making them months behind on their deliveries. For these ships, the first step is to make their deliveries, which can take weeks, and then unload, turn around and repeat the process over again.
In the meantime, some Middle Eastern facilities have “effectively topped out” their storage tanks, forcing them to put production on hold, according to Krimmel. Restarting oil production is no small task — it can take days or even weeks to ramp up to full output, he said.
Along with logistical snags, like the time it takes to load and unload vessels, there are also safety concerns after months of reports that Iran has been laying mines throughout the strait. Vessel operators could struggle to secure marine insurance.
“It will take time for shippers to develop the confidence to sail freely through the strait,” Krimmel said. “I don’t think that is a switch that flips.”
There is also the question of whether the peace agreement will last, as it has kicked off a 60-day negotiation period for Washington and Tehran to nail down details about defanging Iran’s nuclear program. The talks can be expanded beyond that timeframe, under the terms of the memorandum.
Prior to the deal, oil inventories were nearing all-time lows – and oil and gasoline prices could quickly reverse course and shoot back up if fighting resumes, according to analysts.
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