Americans are increasingly reaching a breaking point regarding their household finances.
Despite hopes for a soft landing after years of elevated inflation, consumer pessimism has reached some of its worst levels in years, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations released Monday.
The percentage of U.S. households that reported being “much worse off” financially than a year ago rose to 13.3% in May, up more than 2 percentage points from April and the highest reading since July 2022.
Additionally, 36% of Americans expect their financial situations to deteriorate further over the coming year, while fewer than 23% expect improvement, resulting in the lowest net optimism since October 2022.
While overall inflation expectations remained largely unchanged, respondents expected higher costs ahead, including a 5.8% increase in food prices and a 7.4% rise in rent over the next year.
The latest Fed survey aligns with the Federal Reserve’s most recent Beige Book, which summarizes economic conditions across the Fed’s 12 regional districts. Prices “increased at a moderate to strong pace overall, with most Districts reporting higher inflation from the previous report,” according to the Fed’s national summary.
“Districts noted that energy-related costs tied to the conflict in the Middle East were the primary driver of inflationary pressures, with spillovers into shipping, packaging, groceries, and fertilizer,” the report added, with the Cleveland Fed noting increased fuel surcharges.
Consumer concerns were also evident in the labor market, with respondents reporting that their confidence in finding a new job if they lost their current one fell to its lowest level since December 2025. Less than half of workers (43.7%) said they believed they would be able to find a replacement job if laid off.
“Labor market expectations deteriorated somewhat with an increase in layoff expectations and a decline in job finding expectations,” the New York Fed said in its release.
However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that employers added 172,000 jobs in May, topping economists’ estimates, with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%.
Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, called the May jobs report a “Payroll Blowout!” and added: “We’ve gained more and more confidence in the last prints that the Fed doesn’t have to be worried about the labor market. Laser focused on inflation and it will all come down to the duration of this war to determine the Fed’s next move. For now, the move is to not move: HOLD.”
The consumer report also showed that more than 1 in 8 Americans (12.6%) believe they may miss a minimum debt payment over the next 90 days. The increase was driven “mostly” by respondents with at least a high school education and households earning less than $100,000 annually.
Retired Americans older than 60 and workers earning less than $50,000 annually also reported lower spending-growth expectations.
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