Americans can expect an average $1,000 boost in their tax refunds this year — with the White House projecting an additional $100 billion to be returned to filers during the 2026 tax season — all thanks to President Trump’s signature second-term legislation.
The filing season, which officially opened Tuesday, is expected to deliver $429 billion in refunds — up from $329 billion last year, according to Treasury Department projections.
With average refunds rising about $1,000 per filer, the typical payout is projected to exceed $4,000.
“Millions of Americans are poised to receive significantly larger tax refunds thanks to President Donald J. Trump’s landmark Working Families Tax Cuts Act — which every Democrat in Congress opposed,” the White House said in a statement, referring to legislation also known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
“The historic legislation is delivering the biggest tax refund season ever.”
Last year, more than three-fifths of U.S. households received refunds averaging $3,167, according to data cited by The Wall Street Journal.
The refund surge reflects deliberate tax changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the sweeping GOP tax overhaul signed into law last year by President Donald Trump.
Republicans made the tax cuts retroactive to the 2025 tax year while leaving IRS withholding tables unchanged, forcing workers to pay at higher rates throughout the year and pushing the full benefit of the cuts into lump-sum refunds arriving months before the midterm elections.
Not all filers receive refunds — about 60% do — but those who do are seeing sharply higher payouts.
The surge reflects the combined impact of multiple provisions in the law. The increase in the state and local tax deduction cap to $40,000 accounts for about one-quarter of the individual tax cuts, according to the Tax Foundation.
The largest contributor to the tax cuts driving higher refunds is the new overtime deduction, which represents roughly $38.7 billion, or 30%, of the law’s $129 billion in individual tax relief for 2025.
Other major drivers include the expanded standard deduction, the new senior bonus deduction, the higher child tax credit, and deductions for tips and auto loan interest.
The refund surge is landing on an IRS that is significantly smaller than it was a year ago, raising questions about whether the agency can process returns and deliver refunds smoothly.
The IRS began last year with more than 100,000 employees and is now an estimated 25% smaller following layoffs and retirements.
While many cuts came from enforcement roles, the biggest pressure points are in call centers and paper correspondence, as many taxpayers — particularly older filers — still rely on phone assistance.
The IRS, operating under new leadership, says it expects to process about 164 million returns this year — roughly in line with last year — and insists systems are ready. Critics warn that fewer workers handling more money leaves little margin for error.
David A. Perez, CEO of Tax Maverick AI, said the scale and timing of this year’s refund surge are highly unusual compared with past tax cuts.
“This is not how tax relief is usually delivered,” he told The Post.
“Typically, when the government cuts taxes, withholding tables are updated so people see a little more money in every paycheck. That didn’t happen in 2025.”
He said that since OBBA was retroactive and withholding stayed flat, “taxpayers were effectively forced to save that money with the Treasury for a year — and now it’s all being released at once.”
Perez, whose firm has prepared more than 50,000 tax returns since 2018, said the projected $429 billion in refunds represents roughly a 30% jump from last year, a surge he has not seen outside of extraordinary periods.
“I haven’t seen a manufactured windfall quite like this since the stimulus checks,” he said.
“But this is different, because it’s baked directly into the tax return itself.”
Perez said lump-sum refunds tend to have a much larger economic impact than incremental increases in take-home pay.
“Behaviorally, people treat a lump sum very differently than a small weekly raise,” he remarked.
“An extra $50 a week usually gets absorbed by groceries or gas. But a $4,000 refund in February feels like investable cash. People use it for big-ticket items — car down payments, vacations, or paying off high-interest credit card debt.”
As a result, Perez said he expects a sharp burst of consumer activity early in the year.
“President Trump delivered the largest tax cut in history for middle- and working-class Americans, lowering taxes in every county in every state across the nation,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai told The Post.
“This tax relief will allow American families to keep more of their hard-earned money and unleash economic growth and prosperity not just during tax season, as millions of Americans receive refund checks, but for years to come.”
“This is yet another promise made, promise kept as President Trump continues to Make America Great Again.”
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