Wall Street Breakfast Podcast: Oil Snaps Back

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Oil bounces after Trump orders blockade of sanctioned tankers off Venezuela. (00:23) Affirm (AFRM) CFO says consumer ‘feels quite healthy’. (01:38) Rail unions sound alarm on $85B Union Pacific (UNP)-Norfolk Southern (NSC) merger over safety and cost concerns: report. (02:17)

This is an abridged transcript.

Crude oil is up 2.4% to more than $56/barrel, as of the time of this recording.

U.S. crude futures rose as President Trump ordered a blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, while also designating the Maduro regime as a foreign terrorist organization.

Trump’s move is a major escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela and follows last week’s seizure of a tanker off the Venezuelan coast.

According to Rapidan Energy Group, ~30% of Venezuela’s oil shipments are at risk if the U.S. continues to enforce sanctions.

U.S. crude futures at one point dipped below $55 on Tuesday for the first time in nearly five years, as the prospect of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal appeared to strengthen, raising expectations sanctions could be eased.

Crude oil is “approaching critical technical levels,” and “a downside break could soon put $50 oil to the test,” Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital said in a note.

The CFO of Affirm Holdings (AFRM) says the “consumer today feels quite healthy,” with no signs of stress within its repayment rates.

Robert O’Hare said some 96% of Affirm (AFRM) transactions came from repeat borrowers who tend to have lower default rates.

He added that delinquencies and repayment rates are coming in as expected.

AFRM shares rose to their highest in a month on Tuesday after management said it renewed its partnership with Amazon (AMZN) for about five more years. The stock ended Tuesday’s session up nearly 12%. Premarket it is up 1.5%.

The proposed $85 billion merger of Union Pacific (UNP) and Norfolk Southern (NSC) railroads is said to have lost the support of two of their biggest unions that represent more than half the workers.

The Associated Press reported The unions are worried the deal would increase safety risks, lead to higher shipping rates and consumer prices, and cause significant disruptions.

The unions plan to announce their decision today.

The Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen and the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employees Division are two of the most prominent critics of the deal.

The U.S. Surface Transportation Board will begin weighing the opinions of all stakeholders to determine whether the merger is in the public interest once the railroads file their formal application, which is expected later this week.

What’s Trending on Seeking Alpha

US prepares new Russia sanctions if Putin rejects peace deal – report

Years-long bear market coming for gold and silver, analyst Gilburt predicts

Nvidia plans $1.5B server farm in Israel – Calcalist

A bonus item that is trending on Seeking Alpha is Steven Cress’s Top Stocks 2026 webinar. The webinar is set for Tuesday, January 6th at noon. I’ll leave a link to register in the show notes section.

Catalyst watch:

Dow, S&P and Nasdaq futures are in the green. Bitcoin is down 1.4% at $86,000. Gold is up 0.4% at $4,320.

The FTSE 100 is up 1.6% and the DAX is up 0.5%.

The biggest movers for the day premarket: The Children’s Place (PLCE) -33% – Stock fell after the company posted weak third-quarter results, with both revenue and profit missing analyst expectations.

On today’s economic calendar:

• 9:05 am New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will give opening remarks before the 2025 FX (Foreign Exchange) Market Structure Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

• 12:30 pm Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic will participate in a discussion on the economic outlook before the Gwinnett County Chamber of Commerce.