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Why a September rate cut looks almost certain

August 16, 2025
in Trade Tube
Reading Time: 1 min read
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With markets pricing in a 94% chance, here’s why the Fed is likely to slash rates next month.

Transcript:

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CAROLINE WOODS: So given that there’s still some uncertainty on that front, how do you think this report and then eventually PPI later this week will shape the Fed’s thinking heading into Jackson Hole and of course, the September meeting, because I was taking a look at the CME fedwatch tool, and I’m seeing 94% chance of a rate cut next month?

GEORGE SEAY: Yeah, I think that these inflation numbers aren’t enough to spook the Fed. I think that the employment number we got a week ago, week and a half ago was enough to give the Fed a green light to go ahead and cut in September and probably cut later in the year, at least once or twice too. But the data will tell the tale on that. But I would bet a whole lot of money we get a rate cut in September. It’s a little bit overdue, I think, as well.

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