United Airlines said Wednesday travel demand has picked up since the beginning of July, thanks to less geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty.
The Chicago-based airline, however, expects its earnings to suffer in the current quarter due to operational constraints at Newark airport near New York City — one of its largest hubs and among the busiest in the country.
United reported a 6 percentage point acceleration in overall travel demand and a double-digit acceleration in business bookings in the third quarter from the prior quarter.
As a result, it now expects its full-year adjusted profit to come in the range of $9 a share to $11 a share. That compares with analysts’ expectations of $10.04 a share.
“The world is less uncertain today than it was during the first six months of 2025 and that gives us confidence about a strong finish to the year,” United CEO Scott Kirby said in a statement.
United’s shares were down 1.6% in after-hours trading as its third-quarter profit estimate came in below Wall Street estimates.
The company expects an adjusted profit in the range of $2.25 a share to $2.75 per share in the quarter to end-September. The midpoint of the forecast is $2.50 per share, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $2.60, according to LSEG data.
It estimates a hit of 0.9 percentage point in the third quarter, compared with a 1.2 percentage point impact in the second quarter, due to the operational issues at Newark airport.
In April, United took an unusual step of offering two different earnings forecasts as President Trump’s trade war dented consumer and business confidence, making it harder for carriers to predict their business.
Weak pricing power
Since then, industry executives say travel demand has stabilized. Passenger traffic in the US, however, is still down from a year ago, leading to a decline in airfares, government data shows.
The improvements in booking trends encouraged rival Delta Air Lines last week to reinstate its full-year profit outlook.
But the latest earnings reports show airlines are still grappling with weak pricing power. United’s yield, or average revenue earned from each paying passenger, was down in all geographies in the second quarter. The weakness was most pronounced in the US domestic market.
Echoing Delta, United said it expects the industry’s efforts to slash unprofitable flights to boost airfares in the second half of the year.
United’s second-quarter adjusted profit came in at $3.87 a share, topping analysts’ expectations of $3.81 a share.
The company will discuss its financial results on a call with analysts and investors on Thursday morning.
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