One data point could be the tipping point for a Fed rate cut in July.
Transcript:
CAROLINE WOODS: Well the unemployment rate is expected to tick slightly higher to 4.3% from 4.2%. What would that number need to look like for a July rate cut to be in play?
ART HOGAN: 4.4% would definitely do it and that would be outside. It that would be statistically outside of the norm in terms of a one month increase. And it’s not impossible. So if you look at the weekly jobless claims and it’s, you know, we’ve for the first quarter they averaged between call it 205 and 210,000 weekly jobless claims. So that’s new people coming on and getting unemployment for the first time. That has gone up to between 235 and 245,000. So that’s a significant increase at some point in time that’s going to show up in both the non farm payroll number that JOLTS report and certainly that unemployment rate. So if we saw a tick up to 4.4% I think that would move the chances of the Fed cutting at the July meeting from what right now stands at about a 25% chance to North of 50% chance, we already have heard from three of the voters that they’re ready to go in July. So I think you get a sloppy report on Thursday. You likely see the Fed shifting gears a bit and making it a 50/50 proposition.
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