Longtime NYSE trader Peter Tuchman breaks down the stock market rebound of 2025.
Transcript:
CAROLINE WOODS: So we turned the page on the first half of the year. We’re entering the second half of the year with the S&P 500 near all time highs. I think before we really look ahead, let’s take a look back. How did we get here?
PETER TUCHMAN: You know I think it would be probably easier if we were to be sitting here on this day. And the market was down 1,000 points, and you asked me that same question for me to explain how we got here and us being down with all that’s gone on over the last six months, then to be where we are today, you know, no one would have ever. I don’t think anyone foresaw this. When we were in the depths of what was quite a really hard end of the first quarter into the second quarter, meaning the record high on February 19, which was the first day that Mr Trump mentioned the imposition of tariffs on Mexico and Canada down until April 9th, which was the deep, dark depths of the sell off that we had, which was more than 20% at the lows, I think it would make more sense that we would be down 1,000 points than we would be here trading at record highs.But you know let’s look at the last six months. They’ve been extraordinary. I think that a lot of people had anxiety around Mr Trump, whether they were a supporter of Mr Trump or not, around him being a bit of a wild card. We knew that from the first administration. Because if you go back to Trump 101. OK the first day that he was in Davos on his first administration, he mentioned tariffs and China. And that day it was 11. I have a photographic memory. So I’m able to go deep back into the bowels of my mind and remember on that day. It was the first mention he had ever done about tariffs and about China. The market sold off 1,400 points at 11:00 in the morning. By the end of that day, we had regained the 1400s point loss and rallied 1,400 points. So there was a 2,800 point swing. So people who are market trackers already had, you know, we always say we’ve seen that movie before. We had seen the movie before of what the effects of him mentioning tariffs and how his attempt at finding policy can affect on the market that first day that he mentioned tariffs and position on Canada and Mexico. The market sold off 70 points on the S&P incredibly quickly. And that was the beginning of the descent that took about 11 weeks and we ended up being down almost more than 22% Right and that was devastating, right. For the market, I call it. And I don’t use the word crash very lightly, but I call that a mini crash. It was aggressive. It was a lot. And it happened quite quickly. And it was a function of the way that Mr Trump just said, this is not a political commentary. The way he disseminates information, markets can handle virtually anything. We’ve lived through and navigated our way through everything from COVID to financial crises to, you know, war. But what the markets can’t handle is uncertainty and surprises. And Mr Trump is just by nature and by definition, all about uncertainty and surprises. And so what happened over the next 11 weeks was sort of an erosion of confidence in market by the fact that he would sort of throw out a big swath of a, you know, a his negotiating tactic of that we’re going to have a huge tariffs, 185%, 140% on numerous countries at the same time. And then he would pull that back.
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