Wall Street is worried about a hit to corporate earnings if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency in November as the Democratic nominee has vowed to hike taxes, according to a report.
While Harris has faced criticism for taking too long to release her policy ideas and avoiding interviews with the press, she has made clear her stance on raising the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%.
The corporate tax hike will ensure “big corporations pay their fair share” since they are “often paying a lower tax rate than our teachers and our nurses and our firefighters,” Harris has said.
Meanwhile, Trump has proposed further lowering the corporate tax rate.
He cut the tax rate to 21% from 35% during his presidency.
If re-elected, Trump wants to cut the tax rate to 15% for companies whose products are made in the USA, he has said.
As Harris and Trump prepare to face off in November, Wall Street’s eyes are on their economic policies.
“Tax policy is a huge, huge concern for investors,” BMO US Wealth Management CIO Yung-Yu Ma told Reuters. “Tax policy is something that is front and center in this election.”
Harris’ proposed 28% tax rate would deal a 5% hit to S&P 500 companies’ earnings, while Trump’s cuts would raise earnings about 4%, Goldman Sachs analysts warned in a note last week.
Harris’ higher taxes would likely crater corporate profits and lower stock valuations, Ma said.
“Essentially, what you have is the likelihood of a significant pullback in the stock market due to higher taxes,” Ma told Reuters.
The Democratic nominee proposed raising the capital gains tax rate – which is a tax on profit that was made by selling something that appreciates over time, like stocks or gold.
Harris wants to raise the tax rate for those earning more than $1 million to 28%, a smaller increase than Biden’s plan to raise the rate to 39.6%.
Harris has argued lowering the capital gains rate would sway investors to put more money into startups and small businesses.
Trump has not said whether he wants to change the rate from its current maximum of 20%.
“In terms of revenue for the government, capital gains tax hikes have typically under-delivered,” Brian Gardner, chief Washington policy strategist at investment bank Stifel, told Reuters. “But it would be a broad negative for the market. How much is tough to say.”
Morgan Stanley said the correlation between capital gains taxes and the stock market is insignificant, but the tax debate could spark market volatility in the meantime.
Some of Harris’ proposed tax hikes would likely be struck down if Republicans flip the Senate, resulting in a market gridlock, Mahoney Asset Management CEO Ken Mahoney told The Post.
“She would most likely try to circumvent and use executive orders, like her predecessor,” Mahoney said.
He warned Harris’ executive orders may not be “business or economic friendly.”
The Harris campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
While Trump’s tax proposals are widely regarded as better for businesses, economists worry his plans may reheat inflation and raise the national deficit.
“All the models seem to believe that Trump would increase deficits by more than Harris,” Bruce Mehlman, partner at bipartisan government relations firm Mehlman Consulting, told Reuters.
“Businesses and corporations prefer lower than higher taxes. But there is just general recognition that sooner or later, we’re going to have a debt crisis.”
Goldman Sachs has said the economy would be best served by a Democratic White House and Congress, since Trump’s proposed higher import taxes and stricter immigration policies may hamper economic output.
Some of Trump’s 2018 tax cuts will expire next year, but he plans to extend them if he is re-elected.
“When President Trump is back in office he will make the Trump tax cuts permanent, slash the corporate tax rate for companies that put American interests first, and make America affordable and wealthy again,” Trump campaign National Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told The Post in a statement.
Harris has said she would leave the tax cuts in place only for those earning less than $400,000 annually.
“That current tax law sunsetting at the end of next year is at the center of so many questions we’re fielding from clients,” Nicole Webb, senior vice president at financial planning firm Wealth Enhancement, told Reuters. “It’s on the forefront of a lot of people’s minds.”
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