NFL conference championship picks against the spread: 49ers, Ravens bound for Super Bowl rematch

I thought the most annoying topic these playoffs was how all these teams passed on Lamar Jackson when he could have been had last offseason. But no one signed him to an offer sheet and now don’t they feel foolish?

Except … the Baltimore Ravens made it known they were matching any offer, and other teams didn’t feel like doing a lot of math and contract mumbo jumbo just to make the Ravens’ lives easier. Jackson was never available.

But I would sign up for a three-part documentary on that rather than listen to people scream about whether Brock Purdy is elite. Or an overrated game manager.

He is a second-year player who was the last player drafted who got the starting the job and ran with it. Purdy has good mechanics, knows his system well and knows how to get his talented teammates the ball in good spots. Period. Purdy didn’t play well last week against the Green Bay Packers, but he didn’t turn the ball over and he outplayed Jordan Love in the fourth quarter, with some clutch throws on his game-winning final drive.

Purdy doesn’t throw a wet ball well, but neither did Peyton Manning or Drew Brees. I am not comparing those three … unless I am saying that Purdy won’t have to deal with a wet ball again this postseason and can win a Super Bowl just like they did.

Last week: 2-2 against the spread, 1-1 on best bets.

Postseason record: 5-5 against the spread, 2-2 on best bets.

Regular-season record: 135-130-7 against the spread, 48-41-1 on best bets.

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

Well, we bet against Patrick Mahomes again last week … I don’t know if that’s the definition of insanity or stupidity. While he is arguably the greatest quarterback ever, we lost because the Buffalo Bills, already thin, kept having linebackers drop like flies. That, plus a puzzling fake punt, a missed Josh Allen throw into the end zone, a Stefon Diggs drop and a missed field goal.

Though the Chiefs won by 3 points, they likely lost Pro Bowl guard Joe Thuney to a pectoral injury. He didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday and is doubtful for Sunday, a big loss against a tough Ravens defense. Despite not recording a sack in the divisional-round win over the Houston Texans, the Ravens pressured C.J. Stroud on 48.6 percent of his dropbacks last week, the second-highest rate by any team in a game this postseason.

The Ravens have a much more complete team than the Chiefs, and they are at home. You may not realize how complete they are — these Ravens and the 2007 New England Patriots are the only teams in NFL history with a plus-100 point differential versus playoff teams. Jackson threw two touchdowns and ran for two last week, and the Chiefs had a hard time dealing with Allen out of the pocket in the divisional round.

The Chiefs do have a good secondary and should be able to take away Zay Flowers. But tight end Mark Andrews is back, and though the Chiefs have allowed 6.4 yards per attempt on passes to tight ends (third best in the NFL), the combination of Andrews and Isaiah Likely is going to be too tough.

The Chiefs receivers, meanwhile, have been disappointing — that is, until Marquez Valdes-Scantling made two ridiculous catches last week. That’s rarer than a lunar eclipse. Tight end Travis Kelce has looked old and beaten up until the Bills didn’t have any linebackers left last week. Did we mention the Ravens got an extra day of rest this week?

So, yeah, we’re going against Mahomes in the playoffs again. The third time is the charm. If he makes it to the Super Bowl this year, with this team, the AFC will never be able to stop him.

The pick: Ravens 

We looked up some numbers for you, but we are going with our gut on this one. When the 49ers didn’t play well on either offense or defense and still beat the Packers last week, we immediately thought the 49ers just won the Super Bowl. They have the most talent of any team left, and the weather won’t be a factor the rest of the way.

The Lions are playing with a lot of confidence, but there are three problems:

One, the 49ers know how to play defense against hometown kid and former division rival Jared Goff. Goff has more career touchdown passes against the 49ers than any other opponent (17) but he’s lost five straight meetings and has completed less than 60 percent of his passes in those five losses. (The Lions have a very good offensive line, but I think Nick Bosa and Chase Young bounce back and make Goff very uncomfortable.)

Two, the Lions love to use motion to manipulate defensive coverages, but the 49ers have allowed the NFL’s third-lowest passer rating on plays with pre-snap motion this season (79.3).

Three, the biggest weakness of the four remaining teams is the Lions secondary. I am not even sure the 49ers need Deebo Samuel this week, but he is probably going to try and play with his banged-up shoulder.

I don’t think this one is going to be close.

The pick: 49ers

Best bet: 49ers over Lions.

— TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett.