Trey Lance traded from 49ers to Cowboys: Grading the deal from both sides

Two old-school rivals completed a shocking trade Friday, as the San Francisco 49ers shipped 23-year-old quarterback Trey Lance to the Dallas Cowboys for a 2024 fourth-round pick, according to league sources.

Why they made the trade

Sam Darnold won the 49ers’ backup quarterback job this week, so the team decided to more actively explore Lance’s trade market.

The 2021 first-round pick would have been the Niners’ third-string quarterback, which would have further complicated his standing with the organization that traded three first-round picks and a third-rounder to draft him at No. 3. The biggest knock on Lance coming out of North Dakota State was his lack of overall experience, and he never got a chance to overcome that issue due to injuries in each of his first two NFL seasons.

Lance, who hasn’t played a full season since 2019, wouldn’t have gotten enough practice reps as the 49ers’ third-string quarterback. Barring injuries to starter Brock Purdy or Darnold, it would have been another washed-out year for Lance in San Francisco. Since Purdy, also 23, is in his second season, the clock was already ticking on Lance’s time with the organization.

The Cowboys, of course, are also set with Dak Prescott as their starter, but there are economics at play here. Prescott’s salary-cap hit balloons to $59.455 million in 2024, which is also the final year of his deal.

The Cowboys and Prescott have reportedly discussed an extension, but they have yet to agree to one. Negotiations could become complicated due to the evolving nature of the quarterback market.

By acquiring Lance, the Cowboys can get a jump-start on evaluating his long-term potential. He’ll begin to learn head coach Mike McCarthy’s offense, and it’s possible Lance could eventually supplant Cooper Rush as Dallas’ backup. Barring a regular-season injury to Prescott, Lance, who is under contract through 2024, should get a better chance to show his stuff next offseason.

It feels like a long shot that Lance could do anything in the short term to significantly alter the Cowboys’ contractual approach with Prescott, but there’s value in taking a layered approach in the evaluation of the position.

Trade grade (Cowboys): A

The Cowboys spent a fourth-round pick on a player who just two years ago was the third pick in the draft. No, he hasn’t yet panned out, but the Cowboys clearly believe Lance has a chance to get himself on track.

Another way to look at it is that the 30-year-old Prescott has missed 17 games over the last three seasons. If he goes down again, the Cowboys know they have a more talented quarterback depth chart with Lance and Rush. That’s an important factor for a team that is talented enough to win games on defense as long as the quarterback is efficient enough to distribute the ball to the explosive skill players.

Maybe it doesn’t pan out for Lance in Dallas. But a fourth-round pick for a player who was viewed as a franchise quarterback a very short time ago is an easy call.

Trade grade (49ers): (T)B(D)

Let’s get this part out of the way right now: The 49ers’ draft grade is an F. Three first-round picks for a quarterback who made four starts, attempted 102 passes and didn’t get halfway through his rookie contract is a draft failure.

But the trade grade and the draft grade must be viewed as separate entities. The trade grade is a B for now.

The Athletic polled eight team executives this week to assess Lance’s trade value. Three believed he could be worth at least a third-round pick. The rest thought a late Saturday selection was more feasible.

The Niners recouped an asset right in the middle of those projections, so they did well to maximize Lance’s value rather than holding on to him longer and risking another plummet.

Of course, other factors could change the outlook of the trade from the 49ers’ perspective. If Purdy struggles or the team’s quarterbacks get eviscerated by injuries again, they’ll rue jettisoning Lance.

Or if Lance benefits the rival Cowboys, there will certainly be some Niners regret. It could be a short-term benefit, like with Lance filling in for Prescott and helping them win some games this season to preserve playoff seeding over the 49ers. Or it could be a long-term benefit like taking the baton from Prescott as the franchise quarterback.

But on the Niners’ side, the only thing that can be graded at this point is what just happened. They no longer saw Lance as part of their future, decided to trade him while he still had moderate appeal and got decent value in return.

(Photo: Ian Maule / Getty Images)

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