Investors can certainly profit from separating the good economic data from the bad and by filtering out the ‘noise’, said Maury Harris, Chief U.S. Economist for UBS and author of ‘Inside the Crystal Ball.’ Harris added that employment numbers are the most important regularly released economic data because they demonstrate the state of business confidence. He said part of understanding forecasting is to know which numbers are reliable, adding that weather-influenced numbers should not immediately be discounted. Finally, Harris said forecasters missed the financial crisis because they relied too much on history and overlooked the possibility of a decline in home prices.
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